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Subject:  Carefree Cloud Portfolio 2021-02-28 Date:  2/27/2021  8:06 PM
Author:  earslookin Number:  250 of 370

Sturm und Drang this last week or so. Tipsy cloud stocks lost their way and ended
February right where they started at the beginning of January.

True to our mission, we did nothing.

0 buys this month
0 sells
0 skill
0 effort
0 checking the market
0 worry

The Carefree Cloud Port is up 1.1% YTD.

The EMCLOUD Index (BVP Cloud Index), inspiration for this port, is down -0.4% YTD.

The Wisdom Tree Cloud ETF (WCLD), which tracks the EMCLOUD Index, is down -0.8% YTD.

Surprisingly, the 54 stocks that make up the EMCLOUD Index and the WCLD ETF are up an
average of 1.2% YTD. This likely has to do with tracking error -- the EMCLOUD Index
and WCLD ETF don't perfectly track the stocks that compose them.

How did the Carefree port do against randomly selected ports?

At the beginning of this year I generated 10,000 50-stock randomly selected ports from
the base of 54 stocks in the EMCLOUD Index. The average of those 10,000 ports is also up
1.2% YTD. That's no surprise because a large sample of randomly selected ports will range
around the average of the parent population -- in this case the 54 stocks that make up
the EMCLOUD Index -- and have an average close or equal to the average of the parent

Here's a graph of the range of returns of the 10,000 random ports. As expected, they
follow a bell-shaped curve, with an average close to the 54 stocks in the Index. About
half the ports did better than average, and half did worse than average, ranging from a
low of -1.1% to a high of 2.9%. The Carefree Cloud port did just slightly worse than the
average of these 10,000 random ports.


** The sample size here of 2 months is WAY too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

** This is a real-money port. However, the money I've invested in this port is money
I can afford to lose. A 100% permanent loss here wouldn't affect my retirement or other
financial goals one bit. To paraphrase Mr. Buffett, it's crazy to risk what you have to
get what you don't need. That's why the Carefree Cloud Port is zero worry.

On the other hand, if it does well, then it's a bit extra to give to the Jimmy Fund.

Thanks for stopping by,
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