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Subject:  Re: Forget the 4% Rule Date:  7/9/2021  8:26 AM
Author:  Goofyhoofy Number:  103655 of 105397

Since you are one of my favorite posters, I will search for common ground. My investing strategy is also governed by the 'sleep at night' rule even though my overall strategy is precisely the opposite of yours.

Thank you for the kind words; I’m all for whatever strategy lets people sleep at night, even if it doesn’t produce the very last 12¢ in the account.

There have been lots of declines that I’ve sat through. (We may be in one now.) Sometimes the market goes down “just because.” What I’m talking about for me are the kinds of macro events that shake the market and which I’ve been lucky enough to recognize ahead of time (sometimes only by days.) Not everybody sees them at the same time, obviously, or I wouldn’t have been able to get out early.

Corrections happen. 20% or more, I think the definition is. The three events I talked about sent the (relevant) indexes down 40% or thereabouts.

I will not lose much sleep either way and I won't have to fret over when to follow some sort of 99 day rule, how much to cash in adherence to that rule, and when to start getting back in thereafter.

I agree with you. Those sorts of triggers may work for some, but then I don’t follow my port daily nor do I do these kinds of arcane calculations *ever*, so they don’t work for me. If they work for others, bully. If somebody wants to post about them in real time I’ll read those (mungo does on the Berkshire board, sometimes) but otherwise I, like you, sleep through it.

(There will also be some events you don’t see coming: 9/11, a nuke accident, peasants storming the Congress, etc. No magic cure for me on those, either. Recession coming? I think I can usually see that. Market overvalued (like now?). Ditto. Other stuff, maybe not so much.)
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