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Subject:  Re: Poll: Covid this winter in the USA? Date:  11/28/2021  8:40 AM
Author:  qazulight Number:  2367990 of 2381073

I voted about the same. But, it will not be the same. Michigan is the poster child. The numbers are easy there. 10 million people. Between those that have been sick and those that are vaccinated there is a 1 million gap between the immune and herd immunity. The winter season started a Thanksgiving and will end in March. 100 days. So we need 1 million infected in 100 days. That works out to 10,000 a day average. Probably be closer to 20,000 a day peak. Currently the mortality rate is 0.5 percent, so we can expect 5000 dead in Michigan by March 1st. This works out to an average of 50 a day with peaks likely of 100 a day.

If course this is based on the assumption that we experience the delta variant and the medical system does not collapse.

If, and this is a big if, the Omnicron variant is as deadly as the delta variant, and it is as transmissible as the preliminary(extremely preliminary) data suggests, the the 1 million that we need infected in Michigan will be infected in 50 days, not 100. At that rate the medical system will collapse and if (another huge if) Omnicron is as deadly as delta, then the mortality rate will jump significantly. Use 2 percent as this is a conservative estimate for crisis situations with Covid in the past. At 2 percent you get 20,000 dead in 50 days for an average of 400 dead a day for 50 days with peaks nearing 1000 a day.

Pretty scary. Lotta ifs. On the other hand, virology history has shown that viruses get less deadly as the mutate, not more. If Omnicron is as less deadly as it is more transmissible, then we will sell a lot of Kleenex and be over Covid by St. Patricks day.

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