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Subject:  UST Yield Curve Inversion on the Long End Date:  12/1/2021  10:26 AM
Author:  Stas3000 Number:  37063 of 37111

Several papers recently published articles about the relatively weak demand (and pricing) for the recently reintroduced 20-year US Treasury bonds comparing to 30-year bonds. Here is one (behind paywall, unfortunately):

The articles point to the fact that the 20-year issue actually trades with a higher yield than the 30. Fortunately, the bond quotes page at WSJ should be accessible to everyone where latest (could be a day old) prices and yields are displayed per maturity date:

If you build a yield curve you'll see some of that "funkiness" (and even choppiness) on the long end where the highest yielding Treasury securities are actually the ones maturing in 2041, not 2051. Either way the yield is under 2% which is deeply negative in real terms but it's pretty clear that institutions that trade in and out of the long bond - hedge funds, big banks, etc - prefer the liquidity of the 30 and don't care about this inversion. (Actually, I read somewhere that hedgies love trading the 10-year note the most out of all UST's which makes sense as it's the most liquid coupon bond in the world.) Found that interesting and just thought I'd share... as much as I realize this post is mostly pointless for ordinary bond investors given that UST's are more or less uninvestable still given these generous yields. :)
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