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Subject:  Blood, capitulation, wailing Watch Date:  1/21/2022  1:30 PM
Author:  rainphakir Number:  118279 of 118633

Capitulation Watch?
Be on the lookout?
I can't think of a single pundit who is not predicting more pain.
Fear and Greed is barely into "fear" territory.
This changes daily.
But it's suggesting NO capitulation.

Put/Call ratio has dropped, indicates lots of Calls being bought. No capitulation.
among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.

Junk bond buying indicates Extreme Greed. Risk ON.
Bonds are in demand (safe haven). Risk OFF.

VIX... The VIX is rising, but, it's kinda slow.

More and more companies making 52 week lows. Extreme Fear.

SP500 chart has broken below its 125dma, which forms a decent Trendline. So SP500 has also broken below its 1 year trend line.

Where is the next support?
Some chart TA?
Now, looking at Stockcharts SPX.
Eyeballing the chart ...
The SP500 before Dec2019 had a flatter longterm trend... then April-Sept2020 an inflection point and from Oct2020, a steeper trendline.

In order to "revert" to the pre-2020 trend line, the SP500 price needs to drop to 3800. With the SP500 currently at 4441, that's about 650 points.
650/4441 = 14.7% so another 15% to go from here?

From the SP500 top at 4800 (late Dec2021) to 3800 would be 1000/4800 = 20.8%.

My "eyeball" numbers suggest the SP500 is 8% below its Dec2021 ATH. Not quite to the 10% needed for the pundits to declare a correction?

I'm not yet seeing that it's time to start a Capitulation Watch.
The immediate future is very cloudy.

"Might be wrong, might be inaccurate, might be the ramblings of a madman." Tom Nash.

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