I knew it was all insanity in July…
I always asked why we could/should/would expect to continue to see gains via multiple expansion…
…and it was just pure gut feeling and luck, because I was also buying into the momentum trade.
Dreamer,
At first, I thought your statements above sounded kind of like “I told you so” …until I read the last of the three. But I’m not sure I like the second part of it either – I don’t think you or any of us should beat ourselves up too much for “buying into the momentum trade.” Those of us being cautious back in the summer have been proven correct in the short term. But if you’d been too cautious back in 2017 or 2018 when these things first started to look expensive, you would have missed that entire run-up. So I agree with you on one thing: Timing is luck.
And I do agree with your conclusion on what to do now: wait for them to bounce back and/or simply grow in-line with their growth rates moving forward, starting with this next round of ERs.
Bear