This board seems to have died a slow death, on life support, or it’s the land of lurkers thst don’t like to post. ;). Maybe I should ask MF to change the name to The Dust Bowl. Hey that’s not a bad idea for a new board. So I don’t trade, I buy and add on weakness, but I did do a bit of fall cleaning. Sold completely out of VYGVF today with a small profit. Why? Well if in an up market, with crypto breaking out, a trading platform for crypto cannot go up, I’m moving on. I for the first time got heavily into crypto the last two months, with the help of Blockchain Backers videos on YouTube. That’s been an 80% return to date. Go BTC, ETH, LINK, ADA! I’ve also reduced my ZM position from 4% to 2%. Even with the last year sucking for ZM, buying ZM pre pandemic has still paid off. I just think it’s going to be a tough 3 to 6 months and want to raise cash again back up to 25% of my portfolio. Close now. Then there is the big surprise, the biggest risk I’ve ever taken in 25 years of investing in stocks. I was tired of watching Saul and his army make all the right moves, so at a cost average of 122 I bought into UPST with a position size 5 times larger then I’ve ever done. I stupidly trying to play catch-up in a somewhat dimwitted and desperate move piled a bankroll into the stock. Ive now watched in utter disbelief and amazement a double as of today in the stock price. UPST is now my third largest holding, moving past NFLX and ROKU and behind AAPL and AMZN. WOWZA! I’ll thank the boys and girls on the Saul board for introducing me to this one, and thank my self for having the guts to take this chance, one that I will probably never take again. Note: I sold 1/8 of the position that were the shares I bought in my tax deferred account at 225 last week. So that’s my impromptu update, just to put something on here. This board had life, some really good people sharing investing info and life info at one point. It’s too bad a drought hit. We do have a great email thread going with a few of you now, which I very much appreciate the sharing we do there. Best of luck everyone. Remember that money buys you lots of things you don’t need. What’s needed are friendships, hanging out with loved ones, laughing together and sharing time together. Have a friend, ex pro soccer player, wife and a 3 year old daughter, who died last night of colon cancer after a miserable battle for the last year. Yea, he helped put life into perspective for everyone around him. Especially last night. TMB
Hi TMB,I am a long time lurker and admirer of your board. I saw in the last post that you’ve invested in cryptos. I have a question that no one has given me a satisfactory answer to regarding cryptos as an investment asset class. The premise of investing in any single virtual currency seems to be that it is a finite and scarce asset. But what of the asset class itself? Isn’t the future quantity of crypto currencies unlimited? Arent there low barriers to entry in creating Bitcoin 2.0 or Ethereum 2.0, with enhancements and improvements, such as generation using green sustainable energy only or anything else that innovation can conceive? Because of these concerns, I personally could not possibly invest in crypto currencies. Your thoughts, if you care to share, would be if interest to me. Thank you, and thank you for your board. —K.
There´s no need to pour salt in the wound.The board didn´t die for no reason.Congratulations for the UPST investment and especially for the crypto performance. Huge!All the best to all those who, until some time ago, put their heart and soul into this board!ClubberV
TMBI jumped into UPST about the same time ($123 in late June). I have a 14.5% allocation as of now, I wish I bought a little more (not surprisingly). I’ve also been cleaning house in my accounts, I have a little more work to do. Very sorry to hear about your friend, sending good vibes your way. My best friend passed about 11 years ago and my brother passed 10 years later on the same day, both were way to young. I’m currently researching RSKD, I’d like to have some smaller cap names. Curious what else you’re currently in or are researching. Have a great holiday weekend. caps
Remember that money buys you lots of things you don’t needthank you for that very healthy reminder, sometimes we get too caught up with the wrong priorities I made a similar "all-out" move with Monday.com after hesitating for a few weeks until I saw that there is now enthusiasm for the stock also on Saul-villeI see you have a significant position in ROKU. I do too but I am really starting to worry about it after the reported slow-down in the last ER. I know a number of paid services are big fans but I am getting rather jittery
this board is breathing today.Then there is the big surprise, the biggest risk I’ve ever taken in 25 years of investing in stocks. I was tired of watching Saul and his army make all the right moves, so at a cost average of 122 I bought into UPST with a position size 5 times larger then I’ve ever done. I stupidly trying to play catch-up in a somewhat dimwitted and desperate move piled a bankroll into the stock. Ive now watched in utter disbelief and amazement a double as of today in the stock price. If there is ever a stock to buy right now, it's UPST. Highest conviction for lots of people. Right now, we are watching the market realize this same conviction as UPST goes up in 5% chunks. No guarantees in the markets, of course, but if you are going to be buying stocks, might as well buy UPST.
Kyoami, So this is not my board, never was, never will be. I have no need or want of my own board. As for crypto, trust me I also scratch my head when it comes to understanding the world of crypto. Even reading reports, it still doesn’t make much sense to me. The coins especially. I understand what the basic idea of the platforms are, the infrastructure. I bought mainly because of the tech analyst online with a great track record, and the sell off across the board. I’m holding for now, but going to start trimming as I see more retail investors start talking about crypto again. They seem to always buy at the highs while the smart money and institutional investors begin to bail. Once I see everyone getting excited again, I’ll get out. As for ROKU, for me anyway, it’s a core holding that I lock away. Own it around 80 bucks, it’s sold off a lot from its high, might even be dead money for quite a while, but I’m thinking 5 plus years out on this one. So far management has been pretty smart in moving the company forward, they may have slower times, but I trust they know what they are doing. I’m thinking AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, all have had bad periods in their lives that felt like it was over for them, but longer term they have been great investments. Again, not my board. I’ll post once in a while if there is a reason to do so, or the right people gravitate back to it. TMB
Hey caps!I'm also looking into RSKD as I realised lately that UPST was discussed on Saul's board as early as March! I'm clearly not getting into the rising stars early enough, although I did buy some UPST in the 90s. But to do this I need to put in the work and not just lurk on Saul's board.I browsed their S1 yesterday and found it interesting. It looks like a great business model and I took a small (3%) position. I need to look into their competitors.Maybe we can start a thread here.
So that’s my impromptu update, just to put something on here. This board had life, some really good people sharing investing info and life info at one point. It’s too bad a drought hit. We do have a great email thread going with a few of you now, which I very much appreciate the sharing we do there. Thanks for sharing and sorry for that news. I am not prone to giving updates, sometimes it causes too much thought on why I might be holding 1 stock or another… and that can be a lot to think about. And sometimes it is good to not think too much about it and just hold when nothing seems to be going wrong. While not my largest holding and one I hardly seem to ever look at.. PAYC is just teasing me at closing with an overall return of 999.93% in my portfolio.UPST passed CRWD to become my #2 position and close on the heals of SHOP for #1.
Kyoami - I'm no pro in crytpo but I do have about 10% of my net worth in Ethereum.Suggestion: If you are really interested, devour the Bankless podcast which can be found on Youtube.https://www.youtube.com/c/BanklessThey have hours and hours and hours of content but thats what it takes to start to get a firmer grasp on the subject. But what of the asset class itself? Isn’t the future quantity of crypto currencies unlimited? Arent there low barriers to entry in creating Bitcoin 2.0 or Ethereum 2.0, with enhancements and improvements, such as generation using green sustainable energy only or anything else that innovation can conceiveYes, the barriers to entry are low. In fact, the code is open source so anyone can take it and modify it. But think of many other applications that are fairly easy to duplicate - twitter, facebook, etc. There's no magic to them. Why then do they have sticking power? - network effects and first mover advantages. I barely even think of Etheruem as a currency. It is, of course, but think of it more as a platform or a protocol - something to use as the base layer to build upon.So what can be built on it? Games, DEFI, NFTs, Smart Contracts, etc etc. These are all taking off apart from one another, but all built on Etheruem. The developer community around ethereum is massive and only growing. I can't keep up with all of it. The more you watch and learn the more you will be convinced block chains are going to revolutionize and change the world. I'm completely convinced. I'm going to keep my eye on the developers and ecoystem around Etheruem just like I'd keep a keen eye on a companies revenue.Check out this podcast I just listened to this morning by Patrick O'Shaunessy on gaming with NFTs. The gaming world, already used to crypto currencies and digital assets, are going to blow uphttps://podcasts.apple.com/cz/podcast/gabby-dizon-mapping-th...The play-to-earn model has seen its most rapid growth in the popular NFT-based game “Axie Infinity”. Players earn tokens within the game which can be exchanged into local currencies or be used to purchase more digital assets. For a sense of how this market has expanded, Axie Infinity has already reported over $1.5bn in sales over its history- and nearly $900mn over the last 30 days.I view Ethereum almost as the new internet. Adoption is only beginning now and we are still very very early. There's decades to run...-AJ
I am putting together a simple 3-rule investing guide for indefinite holdings for myself.It is mostly a synthesis of Saul principles with minimum tweaks.One of my rules from now on is:Minimum of 1 ER under the belt if hotly rec-ed by Saul or Beth;Minimum of 2 ERs under the belt in all other cases;Desired: 3-4 ERs under the belt. I got too excited by the AI S1 and sold today at 50% loss letting a 50% gain slip through my fingers in February (hence another firm rule as well: sell all of X when stock prices totally divorces from fundamentals, which is also a TMF rule that they have not followed in the 2 years I have been around).In 2020, I made +125% as a first year investor which did not allow me to learn much.In 2021, I am only now +15%, finally closing the gap with QQQ (very quickly). So I saw a lot, drew lots of lessons, and put them all together.Getting excited by new companies? Done. Prove yourself first, then I will hire you.
5th HMGood idea. Whoever gets to researching first can start the thread. What else are you looking into? caps
Hey caps, I did a bit of research on SEMRush as well. That was another one mentioned at Saul's, I think by the same guy. Looks like a 50% grower but SEO/SEM is pretty much greenfield so it could easily accelerate if they have a superior product.Unsurprisingly, it being Martech, all the interviews I found were basically PR pieces. I was really just checking to see if it was legit before investing and I like their story. I think I will hold till the next ER and then see. I have doubts that a moat can be built in such a rapidly evolving space.I'll see what I can put together for RSKD.
I'll see what I can put together for RSKD.That would be great… I had planned to do some reading on them over the weekend, the weekdays don’t offer a lot of time for research
TMB, thanks for the posting. Since it is "summah" here in Vacationland (busy with boats, festivals, art) my portfolio has been on autopilot. But I couldn't miss the enthusiasm for UPST so I jumped in with a top 10 position at $110 and have been topping off, last at double that, $220. Saul gets really excited only rarely (AYX, ZM, now UPST) and it pays to pay attention. On the crypto side, I have small positions in LINK, ETH and BTC. I'm slowing transitioning from GBTC in the IRA to BTC in a taxable account. I hope you're finding time to paint.
Hi,This board seems to have died a slow death, on life support, or it’s the land of lurkers thst don’t like to post. ;)I'm one of those lurkers! A bit because English is not my first language, so it takes more effort. But also because I'm not a great investor. As Yoga Berra probably said, making prediction is hard, especially about the future. I rarely clearly see the future of a company, UPST being an exception. It can have a lot more clients and it can do it's IA thing for other types of loans.But most of the time, I just look at past results. I buy companies that have success and hope it will continue. Add a pinch of momentum and that's pretty much it... So nothing to write about.Sold completely out of VYGVF today with a small profit. Why? Well if in an up market, with crypto breaking out, a trading platform for crypto cannot go up, I’m moving on.I completely agree but I haven't sold yet, I'm waiting for their Q4 results.
"I buy companies that have success and hope it will continue."Well, you have distilled it pretty darn well, haven't you? When I knew nothing of TMF, I was thoroughly annoyed my 401k did not allow (and still does not) direct ownership. I would have simply bought the top and obvious companies. Due to complete lack of understanding, I would have missed GOOG and FB for sure (I was not getting the hype). But I would have had AMZN, AAPL, MSFT along with V, MA, maybe NVDA, INTC and call it a day.That should have beaten SPX in 2010-19 (when I took over from the mutual fund) handily. The whole idea of beating the market by finding inefficiency is flawed for most people even in the best of times (and statistically I suppose nobody wins a value game since like 2009). So we buy the best. Some the more obvious ones, others the up and coming (higher gains, higher risk).For momentum, product analysts like Beth Kindig are really the key. They can have a leg on the market but then investors need patience and monitoring if the thesis is starting to happen. VYGVF is just a trade; an indirect play on crypto, not a serious investment, IMO.
Hi Rivus, Yes doing some painting. Been copying an Edward Hopper painting as a study. I tend to learn a lot when I try to copy a great painter. Mainly to keep it simple. Like anything else, once you master something, which is rare, it becomes a lot easier. I think about the pro beach volleyball players I am around most mornings. Watching their game, it becomes really simple because of their control and understanding of the court. It’s that way with everything. The only thing I’ve mastered in my life is the restaurant. Finally after 15 years, we hit our stride. It’s a simple formula and in a sense all that knowledge goes down to the foundation and it becomes more instinctual, relaying on confidence and trust. I’m sure painting is the same. You have great drawing skills to then be able to then paint in loose abstract. Jordrok, you should post more as you have a lot to say. Your post shares very important reminders. As Buffett says, you don’t have to be a seconded smart investor to do well. Just buying a handful of the solid great leaders is all you need. I have found in the past that I’ve made many very smart moves that ended up costing me financially. Outsmarting myself many many times. I have to remind myself to keep it simple quite often. Your post reminds me of that, so thank you for posting. Oh and your English seems great to me. ;) TMB
Rememeber all that VYGVF is on an OTC Canadian exchange. I think this is why its not as liquid and gaining as much as we might hope it would during recent the crypto boom. It is simply not available for purchase to many investors and funds.It is uplisting a bigger Canadian exachange next week I believe. But it may need to uplist further to NASDAQ to get big institutional money able to invest. So VYGVF is either a swing trade candidate or at the point where you build a LTBH position waiting for payoff when it becomes more investable security. But you have to believe crypto in general is going to be in favor for the couple years it takes to get to that point.
https://youtu.be/SzGMjymAPdYAbove link is to Blockchain Backers latest video post from this morning. He’s the only person I listen to when it comes to crypto simply because he’s been incredibly consistent and right with his calls. The video today is a must watch for anyone in crypto. He rambles a bit, but his info makes the most sense to me, especially today. I’ve had great success getting in and staying the course, not trading it. His point of view is that we will reach new highs, but once that happens, once everyone is again in a Bitcoin frenzy, once all the celebrities are tweeting once again about their crypto holdings, the bull run will be over and it will be another time to bail. The thing about crypto, it’s bull runs are fast, furious, and short lived. It has spent most of its time in ugly and dark, painful periods. I’ll follow his lead once again. As for VYGVF, I don’t see it taking hold before the next bear market in crypto hits, and once it hits, once everyone stops making money, the trading will dry up once again. So yea a swing trade makes sense, but the problem is the upward swing should be happening now and it’s not. Yea if you had caught the bottom like I know a couple of people have, it’s been a good run, but I’m not sure why it’s stalled here. Coinbase as well hasn’t moved that much. So I’d rather get out now. Best of luck though. Hope is moves up from here. TMB
TMB - what crypto exchange do you use and why?Thanks
I use Voyager. Well partly because I’m lazy and haven’t really checked out the others. Partly becuse it’s fast, efficient and easy, right from my iPhone. I find the spreads are a bit much, but I hear they are on every site. TMB
Minimum of 1 ER under the belt if hotly rec-ed by Saul or BethI find it amusing that anyone can put Saul and Beth in the same category. Beth's service has had a litany of failed trades and loss-making stock picks. I could list the recent ones if it were not unethical, another example with such a drop in AH just today. OTOH Saul has had minimal stock picks go wrong, and even then the loss is minimized as he exits swiftly. Admittedly I have been quite fascinated by the TA offered by Knox on IO. But with more hindsight I have become a bit more cynical reading the projected EW movements that invariably predict that the stock price may go up or down or down a lot, followed by applause that he's nailed it again. Perhaps I misunderstand the service
Fireblade, You do not misunderstand the service, quite the opposite, you are open to changing your opinion without some inner threat to your ego or sanity. You are a realist. The pro Knox comments on there are simply out of touch with the reality of what’s really going on. I keep rooting for him, that he’ll get one right, but at this point I’ve seen the light. The thing is I’m not sure if technical analysis is completely flawed or it’s the person interpreting it. I follow Blockchain Backer for my crypto portion of my portfolio and his analysis which also uses a lot of past history, along with current sentiment, has been spot on. So maybe it’s more about the instincts and experience of the person. Maybe Knox just has no idea what he’s doing with all that info. I’ve always believed that looking at a chart made sense for me. Using the simple 200dma for instance worked well when picking a place to buy shares of a falling stock in a down market. It’s been very successful for me in the past. What Knox has proven over the past year for me and some of us is that his advanced technical analysis is a crock of you know what. It’s no more reliable then flipping a coin. Maybe less in fact. Or maybe he needs to get more experience in how to read overall markets and everything that actually makes stocks move to go along with all his technical work. Whatever it is, something needs to change. Best of luck going forward. TMB
There is no research that shows TA to work as a way of beating an index long term. TA is a great way of predicting the past. It offers broad strokes about what the future may hold and that's it. Beth is a product analyst and Saul is not. Each gives me something different. Knowledge of products and their implications is the reason to subscribe to I/O. If you are not interested in product analysis or don't want LTBH positions, there is no need for I/O--or TMF for that matter.
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