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I know that this post is off topic, so reply off-board if you must reply, but I think of this as an educational and reassurance post, and part of the job I set myself as leader of the board.

With all this talk about inflation, interest rate hikes, and the danger of a recession, it’s easy to feel as if this pull-back is still in full swing. However, for our companies, it seems to have bottomed a little over three weeks ago, on Thursday, June 16th.

Well then, how much is each of our companies off the low price it reached in this decline? Here they are (as of July 8) in order of results.


MDB, from $213.4 to $314.2 up 47.2% !!!
CRWD, from $130.0 to $190.4 up 46.5%
SNOW from $110.3 to $159.68 up 44.8%
BILL, from $89.9 to $129.9 up 44.5%
S, from $18.64 to $26.81 up 43.8%
NET, from $38.96 to $52.08 up 33.7%
DDOG, from $81.1 to $108.3 up 33.5%
MNDY, from $87.05 to $114.23 up 31.2%


So the top five are up an average of over 45% from their bottoms, and the other three an average of just under 33% from theirs. You'd never believe it if you just listened to the news, the talking heads, and the trolls.

Now, by definition, someone sold and someone bought at the low price. I just hope that the seller wasn’t one of you, scared into selling by all the voices saying “It’s going much further down!” on the day it bottomed.

As long as the company news is unchanged and good, what I do is stay in. (Note that that’s not the same with a company whose news and story have changed, Upstart is a recent example where, if I had had a position, I would have exited pretty immediately).

The reason I stay in is because just as I don’t know how far the rises will go, I don’t know how far the falls will go either. While this one turned into a once in 20 years or once in 30 years drop, the reason I don't exit when a pull-back gets going is, for instance, if I had tried market timing and exited on Mar 16, 2020, when my portfolio was down 37% from my Feb high to 84% of what I had started the year, I would have missed a 297% gain from there to the end of the year, that's 397% of what I had at that bottom, a quadruple for all intents and purposes. I promise you I had no idea that that would happen and it was a very scary time with the onset of Covid.

Best,

Saul

By the way, if other essentially consumer facing companies like Upstart start pre-announcing huge negative revisions to revenue and earnings, it can only be good for our companies as investors start thinking "Who isn't pre-announcing?" and "Who is least likely to have that happen?"
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