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No. of Recommendations: 4
Fenrus,

Where do you look for the ZZ information?

A great question. And, deserving of an answer I would say. Since you
were daring enough (but in a Boring way) to make the effort to
determine AAON's Z Factor, I made the following as a guide for future
reference. I think, based on your questions, that it would be a good
idea for me to add the links in the following post to the FAQ.

If anyone has any feedback on better places to find data, etc. Please
let us know:

By the way, since LakeEffect was the first ever Fool to calculate Z
Factors for companies, I'm adding him to my Favorite Fools list.
Thanks LakeEffect!


Stamp


AAON's Z Factor is 9. Zzzzzzzzz.
(See Details below).

# 1 – 3 Points
# 2 – 0 Points
# 3 – 2 Points
# 4 – 3 Points
# 5 – 1 Point

# 1 – 3 Points
Minimal Analyst Coverage – Number of Analysts
(A) 1-3 (3 points)
(B) 4-6 (2 points)
(C) 7-9 (1 point)
(D) More than 9 (0 points)

Earnings Per Share
This Quarter Next Quarter This Fiscal Next Fiscal
# of Estimates 3 3 3 3
Mean Estimate 0.36 0.40 1.56 1.73
High Estimates 0.41 0.43 1.61 1.84
Low Estimates 0.33 0.36 1.53 1.65
Coefficient Variance 11.57 8.82 2.82 5.60
http://quote.fool.com/Estimates/estimates.asp?currticker=aaon&symbols=aaon



# 2 – 0 Points
Middle Growth Industry
(A) 7% - 8% (3 points)
(B) 9% - 10% (2 points)
(C)11% - 12% (1 point)
(D) More than 12%, or Less than 7 (0 points)

5 Year Average Sales Growth for the industry is 3.58%
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Page=GrowthRates&Symbol=AAON

(Of course it really depends on what you want to do here. For one
thing, if you go to Morningstar's website, they have an estimated 5
year sales growth of 14.1% [for an average of 2.8%]. Here's a link:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Stock/industrysnapshot.asp?Country=USA&Symbol=AAON&hsection=

So, in some cases it may depend if you want to look backward or
foreword. In the end, the average is still outside of our definition
of “Middle Growth”)


# 3 – 2 Points
Revenues In A Small Number Of Industries
(A) 1-2 (2 points)
(B) 3-4 (1 points)
(C)More than 4 (0 points)

The Company engineers, manufactures and markets commercial rooftop
air-conditioning, heating and heat recovery equipment, air-conditioning
coils and air handling and condensing units. Its products serve the
commercial and industrial new construction and replacement markets. To
date virtually all of the Company's sales have been to the domestic
market, with foreign sales accounting for only 2% of its sales in
2000.

http://quote.fool.com/sec/sec.asp?date=03/27/2001&currTicker=aaon&symbols=aaon&guid=%7BB49DE0D2%2DE2E9%2D4897%2DA319%2DC7D831344110%7D



# 4 – 3 Points
History Of Positive Earnings – Number of Years
(A) 6 or more (3 points)
(B) 4-5 (2 points)
(C) 2-3 (1 points)
(D)Less than 2 (0 points)

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Page=ProfitMargins&Symbol=aaon

# 5 – 1 Point
Low Average Monthly Trading Volume
(A) 0% - 3% (3 points)
(B) 4% - 7% (2 points)
(C) 8% - 11% (1 point)
(D)12 or more (0 points)

Average Daily Volume = 36,000
http://quote.fool.com/detailed.asp?osymbols=&symbols=aaon
Outstanding Shares = 8.7 million
http://quote.fool.com/Snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbols=aaon

36,000 x 20 days = 720,000
(Since we are using monthly figures, I assume 20 trading days per month)
.72 / 8.7 million = .08 or 8%

(If someone knows of a website that will give us “average monthly
volume”, rather than “daily volume”, we could skip a step in the
calculation.)
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