My CAPS score is in the 98th percentile and ACH is my worst alltime pick! Can you believe that? I'm down 25% on that buy trade. Maybe sometimes I'm a bit early. I don't usually short; generally I just sell the companies I no longer believe in. Call me Pollyanna but I want to have a positive attitude toward my holdings. Today I bought more ACH for my personal account and I 'm reiterating my buy in my CAPS portfolio. I think ACH may be at the Apex of the Trend: supply squeeze; Asian (esp. Indo-Chinese) growth; product substitution. If you agree, Blog me. Hey. Maybe my CAPS score will be in the 99th next week.
I am with you. It is one of my last few holds that I have maintained through 2008. What is your value that you have set for this confused stock. I got in at the high 30's and am waiting for the exit at 50's. I believe I have valued the stock correctly, but again I am going to be patiently waiting for the price to get there. Maybe I am being too stubborn. Naaaah. I gave the stock a healthy margin of error at the 50's.
Our downfall was that an analasst touted that AL companies would see record highs this year. I did mean to mispell.
$50 sounds about right at this juncture. If it hits that point quickly, however, I may have to recalculate my exit price.
Madcowmonkey, you must be as frustrated with DRYS as I am with ACH. DRYS has to be one of the best stocks I've ever seen and it's your worst pick! Timing means everything, right?
HiThanks for your reply re ACH. Since then, My biggest reason for sticking with ACH is that they bought out a Canadian mining company I owned (CUP) which owned substantial mining rights in Peru, second only to PCU Peru Copper. So I too am a believer in ACH, but for an investment long term and I am still not in... waiting and may stay out. Energy costs are so killer for Aluminum (see alcoa earnings)In regards to the shipping names you passed on:I Own Dry SHIPS DRYS, NM and DACI have a full watch list of the industry which includes:TRBR EGLE DSX FRO GNK SFL NM SBLK PRGN DAC ANW TOD FREE QMAR BHO ESEA OKN NMM TRMD TBSI DRYS ULTR HOS RAMS EXM OCNF I set them up originally on my watch list in order of the closing price back in Summer of 2007... thus I can see quickly who has passed who in terms of share growth...DSX is a favorite too, and if it were not for the DAC dividen, I would regret not choosing DSX over DAC.... But my thinking was that DAC is a different form of shipping because it is containers. Thus diversifying that particular portion of my portfolio.I check the Baltic Dry BULK Index about twice a week on the Dry Ships web sitehttp://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=reporta definite must as I learned at the end of 2007.. just in timeI am skeptical about multi year hold on any of these companies. Simply because of seasonality issues to go along with political, fuel price and demand fluctuations. But from the beginning of when I started following these, it seems to me economic fundamentals, emerging market increasing supply and demands, and need to transport material as cheaply as possible, they sure seem a wise play for growth. I know I am enjoying the my Dry Ships ride.
Mihaul, have you also ridden FRO's tanker full of cash? I've owned it for many years with a net annual yield in excess of 25%. And they still have a p/e of about 7. Re: ACH. Good point about the energy intensiveness of Aluminum production. But that's true of all metal production and remember that much of dollar cost increase in oil is due to the weakness of the USD. Not a problem in China.
Drys was a copycat play early on in caps. I didn't do anytype of looking into it. I am not ashamed of it, but I have learned to not copy anymore:)I am still waiting on that ACH call. I hope it turns out good soon.Best of Luck.
Drys was a copycat play early on in caps. I didn't do anytype of looking into it. I am not ashamed of it, but I have learned to not copy anymore:)
I am still waiting on that ACH call. I hope it turns out good soon.
Best of Luck.
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