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Again, to say there has been no warming for the past 16 years is misleading.

NOAA releases their data ~15th of each month. I loaded up my spreadsheet yesterday and here is what I find:

The peak 12-month trailing average occurred in July 2010 at .6751C above baseline. The prior high had been .6698 in Aug '98.
The peak 60-month trailing average occurred in January 2007 at .6150C above baseline.
The peak 60-month trailing exponential average occurred in August 2010 at .5755C above baseline.

Velocity appears to have peaked in November 1999, at a rate of 2.66C per century.
The most recent velocity I am able to calculate (Feb 2005) indicate an increase of .53C per century and decelerating. Deceleration appears to be increasing. The most recent I am able to calculate (July 1999) is -.0012C. This is significantly more than the prior max deceleration of -.0008 (June 1981).

I am willing to suggest that there may currently be no warming. The rate of deceleration implies this. But to say the pause began in 1997 is not to my mind supported by the evidence.

OTOH, if you really want to go back in time and look at things, I find the peak acceleration occurred in Dec 1992. What ever was pushing seems to have begun scaling back at that time. I am very curious to know what that was.
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