No. of Recommendations: 5
Agreed but perhaps the strongest and most consistent leading indicator of a out there is the yield curve.
All of them 10y-3m, 10y-1y,10y-2y,forward6q-3m and 10y exp-3m have been consistent leading
indicators and they typically return to positive before the downturn starts.

Very true. The yield curve has flashed its signal, and the fact that it has gone back to normal is not an all-clear signal. The problem with this signal is that it leads by so much, typically perhaps a year ahead of a recession, that it's not actionable in the short term.

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