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No. of Recommendations: 3
all three strategies of long term, short term and intermediate term would have shared the same benefits today by being 'in the market'.

But Bruce, that's just not true. You can't count today's benefit for an LT without explaining how the LT would have taken advantage of it. If all it did was make up the previous week's losses, which is roughly the case, it doesn't do the LT any good to have been in the market for the last week, never mind the last month. Only someone who got in this morning, yesterday, and/or last Thursday made money today.

The only LT strategy that does that is averaging in, bit by bit, on every dip, but even that strategy is likely to have suffered a loss since 11/1, unless one started doing it just at that point.

What would be more interesting, as far as evaluating the value of being in the market most of the time, would be the total percentage gain on the best 10 days that made new 30-day or 60-day highs, those durations being possibly long enough to allow LT investors to have bought in.

The point is that one can't evaluate a strategy just by saying "well, it would have been in the market today, so it would have made money". One has to look at all decisions the strategy calls for to see how it would have done on the whole. All today's action does for LT is to erase some losses. That's nice, but it's not the same as making gains.

ST and DT made the real money today, buying at the 10am reversal after the drop after the gap up. That was the right play. Alas, I slept in (I'm in California) and missed it.

IT was probably not in the market at all. IT rules require waiting for a follow-through day to confirm the rally.

-- Scott
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