Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 4
Baupost had a 6.7% stake as of 9/30 at $14.70.

It is now $11.77.


Just sayin'.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
It hit its 52-week low yesterday and is already up $1, so I"m gonna go ahead and guess Seth is still buying. I've heard at least one other investor I respect also in this name, fwiw.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Thanks. I always worry about following Seth into hairy situations and he seems to live in hairy situations. My fear is that he always has recourse that I do not have. He can bail companies out on his terms if things go badly.

Any thoughts on this? AMC has increased debt enough for me to worry that that might be Seth's end game.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 3
http://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q3-2017-Commen...

AMC is a new value investing hotel ... not a bad thing.

Leon Cooperman also filed on AMC.

The Horizon Kinetics boys wrote about AMC starting on page 10 in the latest quarterly missive.

OTOH, as cheap as it seemingly is, there may be a Dolan family discount knocking down value creation for some time to come.

ET
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 11
Oops!

I think I've confused AMC Entertainment with AMC Networks.

AMC Networks is attractive to Cooperman.

AMC Entertaiment is attractive to Baupost.

AMC cars are rusted out s***boxes.

At least one out of 3 AMCs is a value trap.

ET
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
I think one could easily play the s***ty summer releases turning into major holiday releases theme for a nice bounce. Star Wars, et al.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
Wow, up 6% in a hurry. Nice to get one right.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Are you holding AMC?

Disney terms to exhibitors for The Last Jedi are pretty extreme.

Four weeks, has to be booked in largest screens, 65% of ticket revs.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-th...
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 3
Baupost had a 6.7% stake as of 9/30 at $14.70.

It is now $11.77.


Just sayin'.



Aaaaaaaaaaaand back up to $14.70 in 2 weeks. 26% return.


TAKE THAT OTHER INVESTING BOARD! BOOO-YAHHHHHHHHH! GO TEAM WIN THE POINTS DO THE THING!!!
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
I thought the bright green star is for the number of posts you have made so far... but it looks like it is showing your envy green!!! LOL Go Saul.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Heck no, we’re not jealous.

Unlike some investors recently, we can still appreciate 10-20% returns and not expect 97%. I pity those spoiled brats. Yeah, sure.

dtb
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
I was joking not a serious comment. Everyone has a different need, style. I don't like to count others money.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Cough...$16....cough
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
AMC is back down to $12.50 today (on MoviePass news maybe) and I took another dip. Wash, rinse, hopefully repeat. Will sell on quick gains (maybe $15-15.50) and I expect just that. Using GM ninja mind tricks. I buy, you go up, and fast, please.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 3
If we take their maintenance capex = $160 million at face value (I used $170 million), their business has had average ROIC (pre acquisitions) about 15 % (defined as ebitda-mnt. capex/nwc+fa). So pre acquisitions, using year end 2015 numbers, it was trading at a 10x multiple to EV (using $13 as the stock price) - so not exactly cheap at $13 (pre acquisitions) using 2015 numbers when the box office was doing fine.


Now the issues are -
a) Three acquisitions to digest. Funny thing is they are now considering IPOing the European assets to "highlight" the value because European theatres trade at a higher multiple - less than a year after buying them. Sounds to me like they are (allowing themselves??) being arm twisted by a bunch of large hedge fund holders that bought in the 20s.

b) Levered and are guiding to 5x by year end 2018 and 4x by year.

c) Having to deal with PVOD issues. The Window has been shortening for years. From 9 months to the current 80-90 days. Despite that, the industry has thrived. And with the decline in DVD sales, theatres account for about 50% of studio revenues. So the studios have a vested interest in making sure (at least for the short to medium term) thrive. Disney has been on record saying that they won't do PVOD - and if their acquisition of Fox's assets goes through, it removes a big group of studios from the PVOD debate. Still, the theatres are a plain distributor. And going forward, they might have to increase capex (which they are doing - eg. recliners, booze, food, etc.) to add value to the customer who wants an "out of home" viewing experience. Now, AMC (and the other theatre groups, like Cinemark), are saying that their renovations are on average giving them 25% cash-cash returns - fine. But will that be true once the novelty wears off and all the other theatres have also done similar recliners? It's hard to say.

d) I think the stock got hammered primarily because of their leverage and a dismal 2017 box office. The good thing about this industry is that it is not cyclical (they did ok during 2008/2009). But more dependent upon creative cycles and the tastes of the movie going audience.

e) It is not clear that the integration with Carmike is going well. And their last two quarters left a lot to be desired.

That being said, I can see this stock bouncing back once the box office rebounds and leverage slowly comes down (assuming c - is not a big issue).

But it seems to me that there are better ways to play this thesis (Cinemark - which seems to be a much better run operation, which doesn't seem to be cheap on an "absolute" basis, but definitely something we can trade. Lesser upside, but safer ??).
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

AMC is back down to $12.50 today (on MoviePass news maybe) and I took another dip. Wash, rinse, hopefully repeat. Will sell on quick gains (maybe $15-15.50) and I expect just that. Using GM ninja mind tricks. I buy, you go up, and fast, please.


$15.50 ($15.90 at one point) today and sold it all. Was going to keep half but didn't. Jan 26 to Feb 26...thanks for bringing it to the board's attention.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Seth sold ~3.5M of 5M shares of AMC in 3qtr and 4qtr2018 as AMC hit $20.

Back down to $13.20
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Yeah I thought about picking some up at $12 but was too busy buying FB and CRM and others. I still might.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Back down to $13.20

And out today at $16.34! Thanks again for all your ideas Naj!!!
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
AMC at $10.60. Q1 shockingly did not compare favorably to last year with no Black Panther.

Was mid $16's in April.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
And now down to ~$8. Dividend sustainable?

I'm buying.
Print the post Back To Top