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I posted this on the RMBS board but it is fundamental to GG theory so re-posted here. This is in response to a claim of superiority of DDRAM vs. RDRAM.

My reply follows:

I can not debate whether DDR is superior to RDRAM or not. Others have pointed out flaws in the supposed RDRAM latency problem in great detail. As best as I can tell from some very detailed discussion is that RDRAM is better for PCs DDRAM is better for servers.

I do think that there is much much bias in the links you posted.

BUT as a matter of fact, it really does not matter.
Intel has designed RDRAM into their chipsets. They are not about to re-design them for something else that will give AMD any benefit. Look at the problems they had last year. If they shift, they risk repeating these problems. They have a product that works, and even it something else is superior for PCs they will not be using it.

As I see it AMD must be sweating it. RDRAM ramping up and DDRAM not out of the box. Which will cost more by the end of the year?

HDTVs cost more than regular TVs. That is the nature of disruptive technology. People buy them anyway. With a 500% increase in production, RDRAM prices will come down.

Who is ramping up DDR production? Will DDRAM suffer yield problems like RDRAM did? Will DDRAM makers have to pay royalties anyway? Look at the lawsuit. Rambus is already a winner. The fact that Hitachi has still not responded to the lawsuit first filed in January, bodes well for Rambus. For Rambus to be taking on the big boys they must be pretty confident, don't you think?

CEO Tate has promised communication wins. These will come and obviously will not be DDRAM. Rambus was ready to roll last OCT. Intel problems, not RMBS problems put this on hold. What does this mean? It means that the value chain for Rambus began 6 months ago. Micron DDRAM is still sampling!

If you were a DRAM maker and INTEL wanted RDRAM and AMD wanted DDRAM which would you produce? Who has the bigger market? AMD vs. Intel - This is a joke comaprison. Personally I like Intels' product better. BUT it just does not matter who has the better product. It really does not. People buy "Intel Inside".

The best product does not always win!
Was Microsoft or Apple the better product?
Was Oracle better than Sybase or Informix?

In this case, not only is RDRAM first, it is backed by one of the biggest gorillas of all time.
It is critical that you understand this, read the book.

Bet you go long!
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