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No. of Recommendations: 13
AMZN is going to out innovate, out perform and build intrinsic value faster than BRK's old and
stodgy holdings of Precision and KHC and NetJets and WFC and Jewelry and Candies and others.
...


What you say is quite possibly true in an absolute sense, but price matters, as does predictability.
Which would you pick for a hold of 10-20 years?
Price $1bn, typical earnings $100m/year, forecast earnings growth rate next decade 6%/year, but maybe only 3% if things go badly.
Price $1bn, typical earnings $8m/year, forecast earnings growth rate next decade 15%/year, but maybe only 7% if things go badly.

Neither is a perfect pick, but given the choice I'd definitely go for the first one.
It seems silly even to ask which one is the smart pick.

A good investment doesn't necessarily have to have meaningful earnings today to have lots of value.
But it does have to have solid owner earnings in the future, and whatever subset of the forecast earnings is highly certain has to be available today at a reasonable price.
Without those, it's a bet on having good luck.
Luck can work well, but it's not a viable investment plan.

Jim
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