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And 400kbpd represents 10-20% of spare capacity, aside from the fact that the most likely places for US refineries to replace North Slope production are a long tanker ride away so there are time issues and tanker fleet issues.

The UK board's Dubai correspondent brings up an interesting issue, that the Gulf countries might be reluctant to increase supplies in the wake of the US/Israel devastation of Lebanon :

Worth a read. [log in with your username if need be]

Also been some discussion on of the leak on our general Companies board and the UK BP board. They seem to be looking at a restart in January - best hope that there's no more Katrinas, although AIUI the forecast for this hurricane season has been revised down.

FWIW, the press here are attributing the falls in spot prices to fears about airline demand after today's events, rather than anything to do with a hedge fund's problems.
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