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And that's what he intends to deliver.

Oh, I doubt that very much.

Sure, there's a decent chance we may end up with the BBB collapsing - and perhaps taking the BIF with it. It's an enormously difficult juggling act to try and pass a President's entire economic policy in a single bill in the best of circumstances. It was always a huge gamble to shove everything into one big bill, rather than make some of the hard choices up front. That gamble might end up failing.

But if Manchin truly intended the bill to die, he would simply have come out with some of these positions publicly very early on - which would have spooked the marginal House Democrats into backing out of the process. No one wants to make painful trade-offs for a bill that's going to die, after all. By keeping his positions and negotiations mostly between himself and leadership, rather than open to the public, Manchin deliberately chose to create an environment where success was more likely.

There's probably some stuff in the BBB that Manchin would want. He does represent a poor state, after all. His entire strategy is far more consistent with a good faith effort to land on a smaller (though still huge) social spending bill that is far more focused on safety net spending on the truly poor, rather than creating more universal benefits.

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