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And when was it that you think Tesla crossed the chasm? I'm pretty sure that Battery Investor Day was long after that.

Hard to say. I'm putting the date on 2020, maybe 2019. I didn't follow Tesla closely after I sold Kandi. For one, I didn't like Elon Musk and much less his rescue of Solar City. There are two or three posts of mine which explain why Solar City's business plan sucked. I figured the rescue was just was nepotism. But I don't let my biases override facts when I can help it. I kept hearing new accomplishments by Musk in rocketry, tunnelling, etc., etc. so I started to pay more attention. I didn't catch Battery Day but soon after I discovered a video by Sandy Munro explaining the 4680 cell. Since batteries are the dealbreaker in EVs this was an eye opener. I started following Tesla more closely and discovered the mounting competition, the zero emission legislation, the carbon credits cash flow, Tesla profitability, ARK's investment thesis based on Wright's Law and all this convinced me that EVs had, indeed, crossed the chasm. It seemed a bit too early by "S" curve standards but the fact that automobiles are not a new innovation and EVs are a century old technology revived by political pressure (climate hysteria) and technical innovation, justified an early crossing. There simply was no way to ignore or deny chasm crossing. Maybe the Model 3 is the chasm crossing milestone 2017-2020.

The important and safe thing is to invest after the chasm crossing. Even starting to buy TSLA at the end of September, I'm still up over 50% in just three months. The important thing is not be right but to make a safe profit.


Most people just said "lots of nothing and not for another three years" in the usual clueless fashion.

If all you know is Security Analysis you easily miss the significance of batteries. I happen to be engineering minded and got some information about the development of Diesel Electric locomotives. That was my initial model for electric vehicles, hybrids but unlike the ones being built. I envisioned an electric drive train with a medium sized battery pack and a "stationary" diesel engine not connected to the drive train, just a generator to charge the batteries. Stationary engines running at constant speed are much more efficient and they don't need to shift gears. In addition, I had taken an interest in Kandi back in 2010 so by 2020 Battery Day I was fairly well versed in the industry. At the time I was looking to diversify the portfolio away from SaaS and Tesla was a perfect fit in many ways. Opportunity met necessity, I built up my position in just three weeks. It worked out pretty well because I funded part of TSLA with ZM profits taken when it hit its all time high in mid October. My guardian angel must be working overtime. 😇

Denny Schlesinger
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