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No. of Recommendations: 17
Andy, I normally like your posts. Not because I agree with you - I usually don't. But I'm a firm believer that it's only through the process of entertaining all viewpoints - good and bad - that we have any chance of discerning the truth about the world around us. It's the only way I know of to gain any wisdom.

Alas, your post here is more boastfulness than anything. It illuminates little. Just like those of some of the bear brethen here when they, similarly, post things based primarily on emotion.

Specific and targeted economic prognostications, though mildly entertaining, rarely prove to be accurate in any substantive way, regardless of who posits them. If it were that easy to nail down the future, after all, we'd all be rich.

On its nominal measures, 2006 was a good year for the economy and the stock market. Not so good for real estate.

But there are lots of disquieting things going on under the surface which ought to give us pause.

Who knows what 2007 will bring? Or 2008? I sure don't. Perhaps more jolly good times. Maybe new highs in the stock market. And maybe real estate will achieve that soft landing that all the folks in that business keep talking about. Hey I'm all for it. You got my vote.

But whatever happens, I wouldn't brag too loudly. A couple days ago there was a thread here which talked about the recently released 2006 Financial Report of the U.S. Government. I challenge anyone to read that report (you can get it here: http://fms.treas.gov/fr/06frusg/06frusg.pdf ) and then explain to me what end-game scenario you can possibly paint which would warrant your great optimism going forward.

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