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anurag

i like this line of research. however, as you point out, it is extremely difficult to tell where currencies will move and when, with when being the more uncertain.

also, low domestic interest rates lead to weaker currency as there is little reason for people to hold the currency. japan's negative interest rates over the past several years were what led to the massive carry trade which has recently unwound causing the crippling rise in the yen.

also, against all fundamental rationale, the dollar has been boosted by the fear griping the market (flight to safety...although the level of safety can and is being questioned by some). there is really no telling when this will reverse.

also, i wouldn't be so confident about emerging market currencies appreciating against the dollar any time soon. many of these companies rely on exports, so a weaker currency is beneficial. they are going to whatever they can to maintain that advantage.
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