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https://siliconangle.com/blog/2017/11/10/apache-could-be-gam...

Would have assumed, since Apache is so widespread in server rooms, that Nutanix already seamlessly worked with it. Seems that is not the case, but that Nutanix plans to, and the CEOis out there saying that this a competitive advantage that will make MSFT totally have to change its way of business,and that VMWare is a long way from being able to equal.

A little commentary here in general. One reason that I never held onto TTD, even though I literally tried it on twice for a day or two is because I am suspicious when the power of personality has to sell your company. This is the case with TTD and with Nutanix. Powerful and evangelizing CEOs making over the top promises to the world of the future their companies have.

Sure, Tesla is an example of this working. Some would say it really is not working, but buying time, in regard to Tesla. Not here to debate that. Twilio is another such example.

With TTD their business results were excellent, but you know what, not as excellent as their rhetoric would indicate. That draws a red flag. We have to take this rhetoric with holistic analysis.

With this Nutanix announcement, will it be as thunderous as the CEO is claiming with his rhetoric? Same sort of thing. I do not think it is a “game changer” as he indicates. Because if it was, why have they not done it before? Open source Apache has been a mainstay of the data center for quite a long time.

For those who follow ANET, I fully expect its revenue growth to possibly taper. But ANET is not giving off any hyperbole that it will not. In fact ANET says just the opposite, do not expect such extraordinary growth (albeit few believe them in these claims), but it is a marked change in rhetoric and promotion. ANET lets its business and products speak for themselves. NVDA does the same. TTD and Nutanix both have excellent product, but they hype what they have more than their business results evidence.

As such, you have companies talking about actual business without need to read to hyperbole vs. companies talking about the future of their businesses in a hyperbole fashion, instead of selling what their business is. Thus trying to increase their share price into a story stock rather than having it valued on its fundamentals.

That is why I just did not feel comfortable holding TTD. It is a fine red line, but I have fell for far too many stories in the past. TTD is an excellent business. But at this point their growth rates, as we here from each segment is not matching up to their revenue growth rates. And has not since they have been a public company, despite otherwise great results.

It is really at least a yellow flag when things slow down during what will probably be THE LARGEST Black Friday and then subsequent Christmas season in histroy this year and advertisers are planning to spend their money in greater proportion away from programmatic and instead using other avenues.

Sorry for the length. Rather nuanced subconscious feel I get as to what is currently going on with both TTD and Nutanix. And that feel may change down the road again as valuation and circumstances change, but that is the feel I have had for awhile with both, and as to why I have tried both on but never held them. Then again I did buy Trivago for two full days, trying something new. Yeash.

Tinker
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VMware is way further away from open source,” Pandey said. “Microsoft will really have to redefine itself and change a lot of its thinking to go and say, ‘We truly embrace open source like Amazon does, like the way Facebook does, like Nutanix does.’”

Maybe this is why he is suggesting this could be important......AWS perhaps since AMZN “embraces” open source?

This also dovetails in to the previous discussion of Google Kubernetes.....that NTNX is able to work with (see the prior threads on NTNX):

https://stackoverflow.com/questions/26705201/whats-the-diffe...

Kubernetes is an open source project that brings 'Google style' cluster management capabilities to the world of virtual machines, or 'on the metal' scenarios. It works very well with modern operating system environments (like CoreOS or Red Hat Atomic) that offer up lightweight computing 'nodes' that are managed for you. It is written in Golang and is lightweight, modular, portable and extensible. We (the Kubernetes team) are working with a number of different technology companies (including Mesosphere who curate the Mesos open source project) to establish Kubernetes as the standard way to interact with computing clusters. The idea is to reproduce the patterns that we see people needing to build cluster applications based on our experience at Google. Some of these concepts include:

Seems to me that this may be an extension of the GOOG initiative in open source and what is clearly a differentiator compared to VMWare and MSFt.

Also Tinker, I get what you saying about CEO bluster and I always felt that way about TWLO as you know but that is not the same vibe with TTD....he has seemed optimistic but not overpromising IMO and they have beat consensus the past 4-5 quarter’s including this most recent earnings:

http://quotes.wsj.com/TTD/research-ratings

Odds favor another beat for Q4 but the market has become rather demanding for all stocks at this particular time.
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<<<Odds favor another beat for Q4 but the market has become rather demanding for all stocks at this particular time.>>>

I agree with this. But we have heard about multiple different silo metrics growing 100%, 200%, this office growing 150%, etc. But despite excellent earnings reports and beats, the numbers simply do not reflect the growth that the company mentions. While giving these stats TTD must be ignoring what its core business is, that must utterly dwarf all this other business, and is growing very little.

Thereby my cynicism. Bolstered of course by basically giving a revenues warning in the quarter of Christmas, which will far more likely than not be the largest Christmas season consumption wise in history. Ali Baba (albeit not necessarily Xmas) seems to be off to a kicking start and without use of any programmatic advertising. But that is of course a outlier circumstance as it is Ali Baba.

I have to review the earnings more and the surrounding circumstances, but advertisers will be back. Where else are they going to go? New media always has fits and starts as you learn how to use it.

So it is not a call to sell, nor a warning not to buy as the price is down. I may decide to do so. Just the reason why I did not hold onto it and have such a hard time diversifying out.

Tinker
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