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I subscribe to some macro research. From that research "One trend you could set your clock to before the pandemic was that we lived in an “urbanizing world.” Many cities are now seeing their best and brightest flock to previously inconsequential MSAs. Young and active workers seem to be gravitating toward places like Austin, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and a variety of locales in Florida. At the same time, cities like New York, Los Angeles, Boston, and San Francisco experienced sharp reductions in population over 2021. Whether this trend is an enduring one, or whether we revert to an urbanizing world will be something only truly understood with the passage of time."What this means to Apartment REIT's and their FFO, is something we should pay attention. Subsequently, this trend will filter into office space, retail etc.Separately, I have opened, albeit small, positions on bunch of apartment REIT's.
I think apartment REITs and some housing REITs (such as INVN (but it's pricey), and ABR (a mortgage multi-family housing REIT and its CEO Ivan Kaufman is doing a fine job)) are good long-term investments. I own the latter but not the former.As for office REITs, NYC Office REIT, SLG, seems to be doing very well on the reopening and has been raising its dividend. The CCs have been very upbeat with SLG. On the other hand, suburban office REIT, ONL is not doing so well. I own SLG which I consider a special situation but have been staying away from office REITs generally as well as mall REITs. But I own a few of shopping center (non-mall) REITs, which have been doing well: BRX, KIM, and ROIC.David
David, ABR has repeatedly come up on several value screens over the last couple of months. I have skipped over it each time as I have never been a fan or mortgage REITs, however I think that today's mortgage REITs could be different than yesterdays. What do you like about ABR, in your view what are the pros, cons, risks, etc.,. I own 4,000 shares of OHI and if it goes much higher will probably sell a little OHI and ABR could be a replacement. Your thoughts?Thanks,VM
David,I assume you are talking about INVH (Single Family 4 rent REIT) and not INVN. I bought INVH at pandemic low (3/26/2000) between $19.35 to $19.4; Of course I have trimmed around $30, then added subsequently on 3/8/2021 @ 28.8. After that I didn't touch the position and left it. While the stock is yielding 2.15% my effective yield is tad higher than 4%.Remember the bulk of the portfolio is purchased before pandemic and the recent run up in home price is not in the book. Separately, the rents are going up. Still one can question, the cap-rate and market cap to BV multiple (which is also appropriate in this case). Yeah it is pricey.The ones I bought are AVB, EQR, and UDR.I have sold ROIC some time back. I am looking into REG, but have not bought any shares so far.
AIRC (Apartment Income REIT)19th biggest position on Green Street's last 13F https://whalewisdom.com/filer/green-street-investors-llc#tab...9.5 out of 10 STARMINE rankYield 4.3%S&P Global rankings:Rated 79 out of 100 on undervaluation53/100 on earnings quality83/100 on both growth stability and financial health (how can such a young company have a growth stability rating?) AIRC was spun off from AIV at the end of 2020 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201215005265/en/Apa...
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