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I am a retired teacher and I worked in a high school in the south bronx for thirty years. I appreciate your recent comments. Would you mind if i asked you about ARCO..I saw you on the board there. I bought a lot of that stock when it was touted by the list of stocks for 2011 I believe. I bought it at around 25 it went up...i bought more and it is way down. What is your feeling about ARCO..? Thanks from a fellow teacher who spent a lot of time in the trenches and loved it. I was track coach at my school and I ran through the streets with my kids because we didn't have any facilities for them. I was in a poor , tough, neighborhood and thank God , we never had any shootings.

Put quite a bit of retirement into ARCO....thought it sounded let down...would love to know your take.

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Some fools like it for 2013

Its problem is that it makes its money in Brazil, which has had a bad run recently. Over 6, 12 and 24 months it has under performed the EWZ and the EWZ has under performed a lot of things. Brazil relies on exports of Minerals and Ags (a lot to China). China, may pick up, or it may not.

The olympics are coming and people are hoping that will spark the economy down there.

Inflation worries

Don't know enough about ARCO to comment, but you should be well diversified and not have too much in one stock. The closer you are to retirement the more conservative you become.

If you have trouble sleeping at night because of the size of this investment, lighten up. If you are only losing sleep because of past losses, maybe not. If you are going to be over concentrated on a single stock, you better know everything about it, and in this case, the country it relies on.
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I've done considerable research and I believe it has potential in a 2-5 year window. It is not a get rich quick stock but is a get rich someday stock if you can afford to hold on to it for 5-10 years.

S.A. stocks have fizzled recently but then again, it's the economy. Everything looks pretty bleak for the short term to me, including ARCO, but it has the potential that WMT and MCD had 30 years ago, with the caveat that ARCO has to pay part of their profit to McDonalds and MCD didn't have that albatross around their necks in the beginning.

I like the fact that ARCO is focusing on local tastes and quality instead of training to force the "American" menu on the S.A. consumers.

Right now it is a $12.00 stock (even according to the company execs).

I think the run-up to $28.00 was greed due to the attractive I.P.O. and the association with the McDonalds name.

I'm calling for a stock price in the $19.00-20.00 dollar range by December 2013 IF Ozbama and the world circus doesn't shoot holes in the world economy (more than they already have)

No one can guess what is going to happen this's been crazy.

I'm long on ARCO and bought in at the $14.00 - $19.00 range. The only profit on them I can see this year is the dividend yield.

Best guess I can give you for January 2013.


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Here is the gist of a MF article on ARCO: I wouldn't be too worried about your investment, it a scary ride though but don't get off yet.

Arcos Dorados is down about 40% for the year. It's a pretty misunderstood company. If you look at their earnings, they look horrendous because their big market is Brazil but they're not located there, so weakness in the Brazilian currency has just made their earnings look like garbage, but on a constant currency basis, their same-store sales have been very impressive.

They continue to grow at really aggressive rates. They have, undoubtedly, the world's best brand in the restaurant space, McDonald's brand, the exclusive rights to it, and they are so far away from saturation in Latin America and Brazil in particular, it's amazing.

There's one McDonald's for every 22,000 citizens in the U.S. There's one for every 320,000 in Brazil. Now, of course they're not going to get to the same saturation as the U.S., but you can just see that chasm to fill, and just continue adding stores easily for years to come.
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