Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 4
As a neutral observer, IGU and dividends20 sound more convincing than naysayers, about EVs getting more and more popular.

I have no doubt that EVs are going to become more popular. I'd even go so far as to say *much more popular.* My argument is with the irrationally exhuberant predictions that the marketshare is going to be 25% in 5 years. That half of all homes are going to have a charger in the garage. (Tip: 30% of "homes" are in cities where most people park on the street or in a private outdoor lot.) [Side comment: I've owned 5 homes. I have yet to have one with a dryer in the garage. Only one has had the panel box in the garage.] That Musk is going to corner the market on batteries. Don't we believe in supply & demand around here?

I mean, you can't fill up your ICE car in your garage, but you can fill up your EV. So lack of "gas" stations is a non-issue.

I drive to relatives' houses around Philadelphia a couple times a year. It's 700 miles. Want to tell me how "lack of gas stations" isn't an issue? Oh, I see, there's a charging station at Natural Bridge, or another if I want to drive 15 miles out of the way to Roanoke on the drive. And for that trip to the airport we were told is "no problem", what happens when you're on the way to catch your flight and there are two cars in line in front of you at the charger? Let me be clear: NONE of these are things that will kill the EV industry. They are - or the perception of them are things that will slow down adoption for some portion of the populace. If you live in Back Bay, where we have a condo, your choice is to drive somewhere and stand around while your car charges, because there aren't any on Beacon Street, there aren't any in our parking lot, and there aren't going to be anytime soon. OK, I can go to Whole Foods for a charge, even if I don't want to. Excellent!

(PS: even if there are more charging stations, it is a pain to have to preplan when I want to take a bathroom break, lunch, or stretch. With the current system, there's "fuel" available on every streetcorner. I know, I know, it's much more convenient to plug in my car in the garage, somehow.)

Also, I don't know the physics but gas mileage limits must make it harder to produce ICE cars that are as fast AND quiet AND responsive as an all-electric car.

I'm sure that's true, even with the drive train of an EV being twice as heavy as that of an ICE car (Tesla with batteries vs, say, a Buick or Toyota). The physics is pretty straightforward: how much energy to overcome inertia + wind drag. Electric motors are much more efficient. ICE cars have more energy density in the tank, and because of history, much more infrastructure. That will change, surely, but it's a little like being an Apple computer when 98% of the software is written for Windows.

My only argument is with the evangelists. They might be right, but it is going to be a far longer road than they are willing to accept. (PS: Gas taxes pay about half the cost of highway construction, according to this site. Local roads are paid for largely through property taxes and local use taxes such as excise tax on tires, local gas tax, and vehicle registration fees.)

I apologize if you aren't one of the ones talking about 25% marketshare in 5 years or solar charging on every rooftop. There are Tesla threads going on on the Atheist board, Saul's, MeTar, and here. It's hard to keep it all straight.

PPS: Ralph, you are correct, mathematically. But the "lumpy" argument is also correct which is why you stand in line at Target, even as there are 20 registers but only 8 cashiers.
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.