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Assuming humans have free will (a better assumption than that the market is efficient, IMHO) IV can never be known ahead of time. It can only be probabilistically estimated. And the probabilistic variables are things like you don't know when management will get stupid or smart, when recessions and booms will affect the business, when disruptive new information will come to light (large hidden liabilities of the company from criminal accounting acts for example), etc. etc.

The same thing happens in the stock market as at the race track -- reversals of form. There are no sure things.


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