Austin, truly respect your approach and effort to present your arguments for your convictions.
That said, I see part of understanding how to pick winning stocks to be understanding why stocks don’t win.
Sometimes that might be grueling and feel oppressive because it’s all negative, or it feels grasping, but I for one believe that I learn a tremendous amount during downtimes that help me sharpen my process.
For instance, sell offs offer me incredible opportunities to rebalance my portfolio (Recently departing GH, EVBG, EHTH, OKTA for ROKU and SFIX)
Why?
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Last years sell off, and even recent sell offs, remind us of buoyancy. Stocks may all be down, but some come back faster.
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Valuation (while doesn’t matter to some) does matter to me and my feelings on Market Cap vs opportunity in front of it.
For instance, while many folks focus on the ROKU hardware, I focus on the platform of the future, which is TV OS. If ROKU wins the standardization here, we have huge opportunities. There is no need to have an extra device to plug in ala the external disk drive of the 1990s. ROKU has powerful allies in Walmart and TCL to push products to the masses.
As for SFIX, it’s not as sexy as many of the others, but it’s EV/S bounces from 1-2. When it gets low, I buy, as it is the disrupted in the retail space. How smart is their customer service btw?
My wife received flowers a month after our first child was born because they noticed the style of clothes she was purchasing switched from maternity to something else. I guess those boxes will keep showing up.
Anyhow - I’m very curious as to why SHOP has weathered the storm so well and why CRWD has been pummeled (I think Tinkers theory of endpoint competitive advantage cycle is really sharp)
Also, I constantly ask myself why I wouldn’t keep adding to AYX, the only company I own that I can’t really throw a stone at.
Or ESTC which is the engine behind DDOG, receiving no compensation, yet guides stronger than any company we have.
I see downturns as opportunities to explore how far apart the market treats floors and ceilings of our companies. And to gain insights into the true convinctions of others.
Just a Fool, full invested