Before I compose this post into the Abyss of this under-followed company, I want to disclose a few things.I really like this company and wish I had purchased shares when I was first considering it around $58 this year.I don't have any financial interest in the stock.I've been loosely watching it for two years.A friend who is a little more of a gunslinger than I am with his investing (trading) style recently took out a short position in JCI based on my hunch and research last night which I will get on with in a second.I was too chicken to do it myself, primarily because I think it is an excellently managed company, but as you'll see, I think something is going on:All of the following is circumstantial evidence of seemingly unsavory activity, there is no smoking gun here, but I'm going to put it out there, because there are a lot of little things that don't quite add up to my previous view of the company.SO, Tuesday last week, JCI puts a 1/2 page advert in the journal and Financial times touting stock performance over the last ten years, complete with a chart that is well, incredibly impressive.I think to myself, "that's wierd, one thing I love about this company is that they don't play that game, they aren't really self-promoting at all, and this add was shameless." I didn't think much more about it for a week.So THis Tuesday I look in the Journal, and Lo and Behold, the CEO has sold 331,000 shares at $73 and change. #1 on the insider sellers list *IN THE TWO DAYS AFTER THE ADVERTISEMENTS*-Advert on tuesday, stock sales on wednesday and thursday.NOW, this sale I asssume was essentially his year end bonus, and he still owns some shares in trusts and in his IRA, AND, He's getting lots more shares soon (at $61 per share,) so don't worry that he's cashing out or cutting and running.So, Last night, (one week after the insider sales) I find three new 10-Q/A filings that are restatements for the first three quarters of 2005. I assume that a 10-K restatement is forthcoming.I compared the original filings to the restatements:I AM NOT A PRO AT READING STATEMENTS!The earnings don't change by a penny for the quarters, JCI says that the SEC told them to take a certain subsidiary off of their books and account for it by the equity method. And to break up revenue into more business segments.(this was announced in NOV. At least the subsidiary stuff)All that changes significantly is some of the notes, and a tiny proportion of the cash which was given to the subsidiary is no longer on the books, assets and liabilities are down equally, NOTHING TOO Suspicious that I found.THey also say that the "guarantees" are no longer Guaranteed, but have become different inter-company agreements.The Quarterlies are restated for three quarters in the notes broken up into Parent, Guarantor, and "Eliminations" the eliminations basically take 21 billion in assets "Investments in subsidiaries" and 21 Billion in Shareholder Equity off the books as far as I can tell.This was a 27 Billion dollar company in the FT advertisement.General state of the business:JCI is the Leader of the pack in Automotive interiors, especially for the big three.THey have worldwide operationsTHey diversified into building controls and batteries in the last few years, but still derived most of their revenue from Auto interiors in 2004-05 (around 77%) and a full 14% of revenue was from GM, 30% from the big three.The COmpany acquired York air conditioning and heating this year.Could it be that JCI has DI-Worsified and the earnings are going to suffer from indigestion? Moody's and S+P both cut JCI's debt ratings slightly due to the new debt from the acquisition of York.Or is the company Rock solid going into A new business Climate with strong new territory in Batteries and Building systems.Before the coincidence of the insider sale and the out of the blue advertisement, I was pretty sure that JCI was a Buffett company, and looking for an entry point.Now, I don't know.What do you think?
JCI posted its quarterlies a couple of fridays ago, and they were...SUprise!Not so good.The stock dropped 8% that day, but bounced back to 70 and has been holding there.I'm no longer looking for an entry point in this one
Hi . I have taken a position in this stock based on the following premises:It has a strong cash flowThe business in building controls will benefit from high oil prices since people will want better efficincies.The huge building boom in developing countries assures the cash flow for this division. They are supplying control systems ALL around the worldCheaper dollar will benefit themThe batteries business will also buffer the threat to interior business from problems in GM and FordIt pays dividendsThe chart technicals are goodBut I have seen some obstaclesIt has withstood the decline in GM do far but I am getting concerned that GM may totally fall apart. What kind of business JCI gets from other manufacturers like Toyota ? Also compared to when I picked up at 68 now at 75 it appears to be less attractive especially with this GM problem. Comments welcom
I know a lot about JCI. I have worked for them in the past, compete them currently, and know a lot of people who work for them. The controls portion of the business is struggling at home and abroad. Their energy efficiency business is down big time. My guys inside the company have said that the York buyout several years has crippled the company from a who is in charge standpoint.Their battery business I know not so much. But if you want to look at the canary in a coal mine scenario, here it is on the controls side:Rank and file people at JCI are being laid off and leaving in droves. Management is fighting and political infights are the norm. It is York vs. JohnsonLow margin and slumping sales in the core building controls business has been hidden for years by the energy performance contracting business. The PC business is off drastically and that will expose the controls business for what it is...a loser. Over priced and what can be done with Medisys can be done with other smaller control systems for 1/3 the cost. Major restructuring is on the way..but the word is, everyone inside JCI wants to keep it quiet.My inside guy at JCI who has just left before what he says the ship went down told me Friday, "If you have stock....sell it."Sorry for the bad news guys, but I was asked by the guys over at the AMERESCO board to post up what I know about JCI by working in that indusrty.Just so you know, I won't own a position in JCI based on what I know about the company first hand.
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