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Back at home in Corpus!

Great article casey! Another snip:

In setting the stage for its simulated crisis, Oil Shockwave identified a set of conditions that provide a vivid preview of what we can expect during the Twilight Era of Petroleum:

*Global oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel
*Gasoline prices of $5.00 or more per gallon
*A spike in the consumer price index of more than 12%
*A protracted recession
*A decline of over 25% in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index
*A crisis with China over Taiwan
*Increased friction with Saudi Arabia over U.S. policy toward Israel

Whether or not we experience these precise conditions cannot be foreseen at this time, it is incontestable that a slowdown in the global production of petroleum will produce increasingly severe developments of this sort and, in a far tenser, more desperate world, almost certainly threaten resource wars of all sorts; nor will this be a temporary situation from which we can hope to recover quickly. It will be a semi-permanent state of affairs.

Eventually, of course, global oil production will not merely be stagnant, as during the Twilight Era, but will begin a gradual, irreversible decline, leading to the end of the Petroleum Age altogether. Just how difficult and dangerous the Twilight Era proves to be, and just how quickly it will come to an end, will depend on one key factor: How quickly we move to reduce our reliance on petroleum as a major source of our energy and begin the transition to alternative fuels. This transition cannot be avoided. It will come whether we are prepared for it or not. The only way we can avert its most painful features is by moving swiftly to lay the foundations for a post-petroleum economy.


It used to that us Peak Oil nuts were (and still are in some circles) compared to the tinfoil hat/the aliens took my baby crowd. Finally the mainstream (read Chevron et al), are admitting that the peak is near that the "transition period" is going to butt ugly. (not your butt, sll <ggg>

The number of quality, well-researched books written by University Professor type Petroleum Geologists and long-time industry insiders is becoming voluminous.

My eyes were opened by several books (in chronological order):

The visionary and legendary M. King Hubbert. He was surely considered a tinfoilhatter when he predicted in 1949 that the U.S. would hit its production peak soon and then they were ready to put him in a straight-jacket when in 1956 he predicted that the U.S. would not only peak soon, it would peak between the years 1966 and 1972. The actual U.S. oil peak occurred in 1971. Then in the 70s Hubbert predicted a world peak at about 2000 - obviously he was a little early, not wrong, just a little early. Sort of like Fleck predicting the Naz peak in 1998, just a little early.

Hubbert was a world-reknown geophysisit long before he got into the Peak Oil predicition business. In 1937 he resolved a standing paradox regarding the apparent strenght of rocks that form the Earth's crust. In the early 1950s, he showed that underground fluids can become entrappped under circumstanes prevously not thought possible, which resulted in the redesign of techniques employed to locate oil and gas...the list of his accomplishments in the fields of geophysics goes on and on. Hubbert is finally receiving the respect he has always been due, too bad he died in 1989. Hubbert taught at Stanford, Berkeley, MIT, and at John Hopkins University. Some Hubbert publications:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0007HX4OK/qid=1123377774/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2/103-4188038-1347844?v=glance&s=books
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0006Y59I8/qid=1123377774/sr=1-3/ref=sr_1_3/103-4188038-1347844?v=glance&s=books
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0007JDVGO/qid=1123377774/sr=1-5/ref=sr_1_5/103-4188038-1347844?v=glance&s=books
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0006CI28E/qid=1123377774/sr=1-6/ref=sr_1_6/103-4188038-1347844?v=glance&s=books

-------------

Colin J. Campbell - Ph.D - Harvard, 1957. Worked for Texaco and Amaco among others as an exploration geologist. Created the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). His most famous publication is The Coming Oil Crisis (1997):
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0906522110/qid=1123378236/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/103-4188038-1347844

One of Campbell's primary hypotheses is that the OPEC nations have purposely overestimated their reserve figures (from 42 to 197 percent!) and were highly motivated to do so because the higher the reserves are the more a country is allowed to export. A hypothesis that Matthew Simmons has greatly expanded on lately...but I'll get to Simmons in a minute.

Campbell wrote an article with Jean Laherrere, in The Scientific American The End of Cheap Oil", in March 1998 in which they predicted that peak oil will occur "before 2010." http://dieof.org/page140.htm

Princeton University professor emeritus of geology Kenneth S. Deffeyes (I think that my partially anesthesized brain was mispelling Dr. Deffeyes's name the other night, sorry, stuff hapens <ggg>). Deffeyes is mainly known from writing the book: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (2001). http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0691116253/qid=1123379071/sr=2-2/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_2/103-4188038-1347844 though he has very recently March 2005) wrote another book called Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's peak which I have not yet read but plan to soon ( you can read the reviews on Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0809029561/qid=1123379071/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/103-4188038-1347844 Deffeyes really goes into some detail about petroleum geology. He say's he doesn't really like to predict an exact date but that data he has seen using variations on Hubbert's methods that set the date somewhere between 2004 and 2009 seem to be valid, but he became somewhat infamous for making what I believe was a tongue in cheek prediction that peak oil would happen on Thanksgiving Day of 2005 <ggg>.


L.F. Ivanhoe - founder of the M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies at the Colorado School of Mines. He is geologist, geophysicist, engineer, and oceanographer with 50 years of experienced in Petroleum exploration with such companies as Chevron and Occidental Petroleum - He puts peak at about 2010 - read this: http://hubbert.mines.edu

Walter Youngquist, retired Professor of Geology at the U. of Oregon - wrote Geodestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources over Nations and Individuals (1997) - http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0894202995/qid=1123380307/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/103-4188038-1347844 - a quote from Youngquist: "by 2005 at the latest, it wil take more energy, on the average, in the United States to explore for, and drill for, and produce oil from the wells than the wells will produce in energy." Youngquist backs up this claim with some impressive charts and statistices.

L. B. Magoon A geologists with the USGS that maintains a peak oil type website (I'm surprised the Bushies haven't shut him down, but it's still up - check it out: http://www.oilcrisis.com/magoon/

Richard Heinberg, Ph.D. - Teaches courses on "Energy and Society" at New College of California. Has written a slew of books - some of them having nothing to do with Peak Oil. But his most famous Peak Oil books are Powerdown : Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (2004). http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0865714827/qid=1123382264/sr=2-2/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_2/103-4188038-1347844 and The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0865715106/qid=1123382264/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/103-4188038-1347844 If you were going to read just on book on Peak Oil, I think that latter would be my recommendation.

James Kunstler. Perhaps the least credentialed of all the Peak Oil cassandras - but a long history as a journalist and novelist (even 9 books of fiction) and an excellent investigative journalist whose one big contribution to the Peak Oil discussion has been his recent offering The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century (2005) http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0871138883/qid=1123382822/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/103-4188038-1347844 I really liked this book - tells the whole story from when Spartans poured hot oil on their enemies to the depletion of wood and the beginning of the use of coal in 12th century England to Spindletop to Peak Oil and what the world might look like afterwards. Not as scientific as some of the other publications but I still highly recommend it.

And last, but certainly not least Matthew Simmons Who describes himself as a lifelong Republican (hey they've gotta be right about at least ONE thing, right? <g>) Simmons experience comes from running an Investment Company for 30 years that specializes in the energy bidness. Simmons just wrote a new book - hot off the press - Twilight in the Desert The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/047173876X/qid=1123381001/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/103-4188038-1347844 - Simmons does a great job of debunking the Saudi reserve fantasies and brings a unique economic perspective to the issue due to his years as an investment banker. Here's a great online interview with Simmons: http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/blackout.htm



My father rode a comel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel.
.........- Saudi saying






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