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Banks,
Shorting ANZ, NAB & WBC already short CBA.

ANZ , NAB & WBC all have failed to make new highs setting up multi short term & long term double tops &/or double top failures.

Market Timing,
It's getting to the time of the year when I must watch my longs & start looking for short positions. The best part of this years gains may be over & now the selling (esp the blue chips) is apt to begin. Just over 5 months for the portfolio adjustments , tax selling etc.


JR

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JR
seems like you've been shorting the banks since ANZ was $14. I seem to recall this is probably the 3rd top you've called for ANZ. Take a look at a 2 year chart and see if you think the same thing.
How about you also tell us when you close out the short positions as well so we can tell whether you are "just flapping in the breeze" (to use your terminology).
When you sell short do you actually "sell short" or use puts? Wouldn't puts be less risky than shorts?
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seems like you've been shorting the banks since ANZ was $14.
No sorry Barcoo I've never shorted ANZ before.

I seem to recall this is probably the 3rd top you've called for ANZ
No never said ANZ had topped out not even once, let alone 3 times.

How about you also tell us when you close out the short positions as well so we can tell whether you are
Well sure I'll do that for you.I'm still holding CBA short & will let you know when I close it out, this is the only one I've held short for some time the rest I only shorted yesterday.

"just flapping in the breeze" (to use your terminology).
No not my terminology you got me mixed up with someone else.
How about you ease up on your attitude Barcoo, it don't help anyone acting in such a confrontational way.


When you sell short do you actually "sell short" or use puts?
Yes I actually sell short.

Wouldn't puts be less risky than shorts
No not at all puts are good for short term plays I like selling short on longer term moves.

See Bendigo has got creamed of late as well, dam should have shorted that one I was certain that it was way over the top, live & learn.

JR

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Below link to 2 year chart of ANZ,
Barcoo you can see the double top failure clearly(Nov & Feb), thats what I'm shorting.

http://egoli.paritech.com.au/pco/egoli/charts.asp?myState=redraw&lastPriceDisplay=candle&symbol=anz&symbol2=&symbol3=&time=2yr&PriceIndicator=simpleMA&freq=1dy&VolumeIndicator=none&PriceDisplay=candle¶m1=200¶m2=31&comparisonDrawButton.x=28&comparisonDrawButton.y=9

Also evident multi double tops on NAB's chart.

http://egoli.paritech.com.au/pco/egoli/charts.asp?myState=redraw&lastPriceDisplay=candle&symbol=nab&symbol2=&symbol3=&time=2yr&PriceIndicator=simpleMA&freq=1dy&VolumeIndicator=none&PriceDisplay=candle¶m1=200¶m2=31&comparisonDrawButton.x=0&comparisonDrawButton.y=0

WBC made a new high but got sold off sharply forming a 2b double top.

http://209.155.229.115/paritech_charts/ChartImg1.dll/GetGif?config=paritech&cid=1&exchange1=ASX&Time=2yr&Symbol=wbc&Frequency=1dy&PriceDisplay=candle&PriceIndicator=simpleMA&VolumeIndicator=none&Param1=200&Param2=31&comparisonSymbol=&comparisonSymbol2=&Height=375&Width=500&DateTime1=3520024:25:44PM

The XBF(bank index) further supports shorting the banks again multi double top failures.
http://209.155.229.115/paritech_charts/ChartImg1.dll/GetGif?config=paritech&cid=1&exchange1=ASX&Time=2yr&Symbol=xbf&Frequency=1dy&PriceDisplay=candle&PriceIndicator=simpleMA&VolumeIndicator=none&Param1=200&Param2=31&comparisonSymbol=&comparisonSymbol2=&Height=375&Width=500&DateTime1=3520024:28:02PM

The sell off in BEN has been savage.
http://209.155.229.115/paritech_charts/ChartImg1.dll/GetGif?config=paritech&cid=1&exchange1=ASX&Time=2yr&Symbol=ben&Frequency=1dy&PriceDisplay=candle&PriceIndicator=simpleMA&VolumeIndicator=none&Param1=200&Param2=31&comparisonSymbol=&comparisonSymbol2=&Height=375&Width=500&DateTime1=3520024:30:01PM


Barcoo I take action based on TA, at times I feel a sector is overbrought or oversold & may express those feeling which is how you may have become confused, but I never take action on feelings themselve I always wait for TA confirmations before I go long or short.

I hope that clears up your mis understandings.

JR

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No not my terminology you got me mixed up with someone else.
How about you ease up on your attitude Barcoo, it don't help anyone acting in such a confrontational way.


Sorry, right bloke, but I got the saying wrong.
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16230436


No never said ANZ had topped out not even once, let alone 3 times.
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16308547

No sorry Barcoo I've never shorted ANZ before.
as you can see what I said was "seems like you've been shorting the banks since ANZ was $14." One of those ones where what I say is not what you think I said.

this is the only one I've held short for some time the rest I only shorted yesterday.
Well you've probably made good money on ANZ short already then?

Below link to 2 year chart of ANZ, Barcoo you can see the double top failure clearly(Nov & Feb), thats what I'm shorting.
Yes JR I know what you are talking about. I saw it yesterday before I wrote my original reply. If the ANZ trend stays intact it will look insignificant. Maybe we can both be right. You can make money on your shorts and the ANZ trend can stay intact.
Who knows maybe the price will bounce off $14 and I could make a bundle on $14.50 calls.
Your link didn't work for me.
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Sorry, right bloke, but I got the saying wrong.

Ya, close enough I'll give you that one.

No never said ANZ had topped out not even once, let alone 3 times.
Well that still stands I said ANZ was looking soft on 18/12/01(the 1st posted link). In fact it closed at $17.10 on the 17/12/01 which is the data I made that observation on. Never did I say it had topped out, so lets correct that.

"seems like you've been shorting the banks since ANZ was $14
One of those ones where what I say is not what you think I said.


Sure I understood your word useage, but I needed to correct your misperception , as I wouldn't like you to think that perception is correct in any way.

Well you've probably made good money on ANZ short already then?
Well I'm in the money just ,my first target is $17.00. I will look to add to some of the banks ,the weaker ones but, I'm not sure which ones yet maybe not ANZ I'll decide after the first correction (if of cause that happens)

Yes JR I know what you are talking about. I saw it yesterday before I wrote my original reply. If the ANZ trend stays intact it will look insignificant. Maybe we can both be right. You can make money on your shorts and the ANZ trend can stay intact.
Who knows maybe the price will bounce off $14 and I could make a bundle on $14.50 calls.


Yep I can't argue with you, the above is possible. The uptrend longterm in ANZ is so far intact & will take a major sell off to break it. But I feel that the battle of buyers & sellers will cause flucuations that can be traded with the chance to be short at the right time & really benefit when/if that major sell off comes.

Your link didn't work for me
Which one ? & I'll check it out.

JR





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Barcoo you can see the double top failure clearly(Nov & Feb), thats what I'm shorting.

JR
I had a look at your bank shorts previously and I agree that they appear to be breaking down. My only doubt is that the support levels and trend channels appear to be only one or two dollars below the present price - is it worth shorting for what appears to be a very small gain ?? - or are you expecting price falls which would make it worth while.
Regards
Harmy
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My only doubt is that the support levels and trend channels appear to be only one or two dollars below the present price - is it worth shorting for what appears to be a very small gain ?? - or are you expecting price falls which would make it worth while.

Yep I agree with you but I pyriamid buy on long term holdings & the support & resistant levels give me saftey. I'm looking to gain from a major correction but I'll take small profits or small losses if needed.
You can not esp with corrections be sure when they will begin(they are more difficult than calling bullish moves), so my aim is to put the odds in my favour(time & price).

JR

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