https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/cathie-wood-goes-b...TMF jumping on this narrative that growth stocks are unfairly beaten down and currently are bargains?Huh?This article on growth/cloud valuations is a couple weeks old, so likely valuations even higher now, as we haven't had a drawdown in a bit, like we had in early and late March.https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-52...When looking at overall median cloud software multiples - we are still 35% above pre-covid highs, 64% above where we were on Jan 1, 2020, and 33% above the previous peak in August 2019.Looking at high growth software median only - we are still 77% above pre-covid highs, 109% above where we were on Jan 1, 2020, and 39% above the previous peak in September 2019.Masks are off. Offices are reopening. Normal, or New Normal, is coming. The always-unsustainable increase in multiple given to cloud/saas/growth during covid was not a permanent loan, and Doom's Law of Regression to the Mean (DLoRttM) states it must be returned.PATH went public in April at $56 and is $70 now. And multiple over 50. That is a bargain? What...they are growing 60% or something? Quick - someone tell ESTC they should have been at $200, like, in Summer 2019.MSFT took 15 years to retrace their highs from 2000. Was a great CAGR from, say, 2009 to present, but not as much from early 2000 to present. same with Amazon. So valuation always matters.Robert Plant was right...I am crazy on a ship of Fools.Doom
Fully agree...not seeing any bargains in this sector or others for that matter. There are still a lot of dues to be paid for the Covid shut downs in my opinion. I have lightened up and carrying a little more cash than normal but no big moves because I am terrible at timing. Inflation/higher rates are a concern of mine and am in retirement so not going full bore aggressive growth for sure.
So valuation always matters.Yes. I also believe you have to dance until music stops. One thing that is different from other cycles are the amount of money pumped into the system by Federal Reserve and Federal Government. So the peaks can last bit longer. I have trimmed few names, I was not able to buy back on the dip, because the dip is not meaningful, (yeat it is off 25%, 35%, but still crazy expensive :) ) and the stock is back up.Can we get a mini crash somewhere?
Can we get a mini crash somewhere?---My hope/gut is that we have either one more drawdown or truly mini crash before EOY.Expecting prices at or below what we saw around March 5th dip for most names.TTD sub-$400? Would be nice.OLO recently dipped to $23 and raced to $45 for no reason. Good example of valuation froth.I was 2/3rds cash and 1/3rd SPG, but SPG keeps going up little by little. So may have to finally start trimmong in my taxable, but i prefer to push the tax consequences out by selling in 2022. Got some good feedback, as i am getting itchy from FOMO. Someone said something like "you need to be disciplined enough to allow others to win while following your plan."I already hit my 2021 goal.SPG already hitmy 2021 goal.So doing my best to let the buying opps materialize vs chasing.Doom
I am getting antsy. Tiny nibbles on down days. But, I am looking at OKTA. Everything you are saying applies to it. Without exact dates, it looks like it is up 110% more or less from your reference dates while revenue is up 60% and 70%. But it has been trading at a base around $200 for a year with excursions 3 times to $275 -$290. At $217 now. Muji had another write up on the security space today. I'm thinking of good 'til limit buys from here down to $190. I still have CRWD and then some ZS and NET. From the premarket numbers, looks like another day of rotation away from tech growth.KC
Hey Doom:Entirely undecided whether Robert Plant is right or not but pretty sure Orr was right:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiQSNT8VvV0In life, there is a lot of craziness: just look around. Why should the stock market be any different?Best to fly with Orr.All the Best,
In life, there is a lot of craziness: just look around.----Ironically, one can search for the meaning of life on the ship of fools.It is more like Doctor Who than Doctor Doom...I exist both forward and backwards in time, simultaneously:https://boards.fool.com/on-the-meaning-of-life-15103978.aspx...And who could forget poor Roberto de la Griva, of the "Island of the Day Before" by Umberto Eco:https://boards.fool.com/how-did-i-wind-up-here-on-the-daphne...Always enjoyed that book...life is what you make of it:https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10506.The_Island_of_the_...Doom
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