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Batteries are mostly about chemistry, and chemistry is a mature science.

The move to the 4680 model battery cell has some chemistry and lots of other innovation


Both are true. Chemical, and non-chemical innovation.

But chemistry step-changes are unlikely. Because lithium is the smallest, lightest metal atom with an easily-ionizable electron. Small (thus dense energy-packing), light, and ionizable are key advantages for cars especially (and computers).

Lithium ion just can’t be beat, unless you’re going to create a new element in the periodic table.
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