cut estimates from 2.77 to 2-2.50.Stock falls to Aug 2000 levels.You read that correctly.
Is there any price at which BBBY becomes attractive? With the revised guidance, it is now at 8x 2018 earnings. I would think there is a place for BBBY, and SSS wasn't too bad. I have not looked into, and my first thought would be to avoid. Huge guidance drop, on top of rapidly falling earnings. Plus, the management team doesn't appear to be any good. If a company is facing challenges, a good management team is all the more important.Knowing very little about the company, I would guess that it is best to avoid, at least until there is actually a stabilization/turn.GnV
Is there any price at which BBBY becomes attractive?it is a subjective response, but I'd look at CapEx and the buybacks - as you note, they are plenty profitable (860m in CFFO in the past 12 months), but a company that realizes it faces very serious long-term issues would preserve capital with a death grip - right? The buybacks and even the dividends are just games they are playing, but before I dropped this management seemed to have a keen lack of insight into how the company would be valued. This is not a new observation - it is clearly different when you are a manager, when you get an - relatively speaking - enormous salary, and your priorities are focused on justifying your very existence. I just don't think they can think straight because there is too much for them to loose, but they take shareholder down with them. Private businesses would not act this way - you would not act this way, right? You wouldn't keep adding credit card to a shaky situation (of course, if you viewed yourself as a victim you can justify anything), but a lot of people do this because they can't control themselves. I think it is same with companies.And activists and their ilk are rarely a friend, because the first thing they want is to leverage things to get a short-term pop - which is great if you get out. But otherwise...
A highly superfluous analysis...in 10 years the revenue increased from $7B to $12B; but net profits remained, i.e., margins' are eroding; If margin erosion is going to continue, why you think it is a buy at some price?
but a company that realizes it faces very serious long-term issues would preserve capital with a death grip - right?Yes, it seems like the first thing a company should do. Second thing I would do is make the in-store shopping experience as good as possible. Experiment with store design, etc. I acknowledge that investing in the stores may go against point #1 regarding the balance sheet.I think BBBY has a reasonable niche in which to compete. I like Amazon, and buy a lot from them. But, I don't find the Amazon site great for everything. Often there are too many choices. Duplicates of the same item. Difficult filters.Plus, I think BBBY has some things people might like to see in person. Dishes. Bed spreads. Pillows. Etc. Some of them may also lend themselves to exclusives (e.g., exclusive dish set designs).When I got married (longer ago than it used to be), BBBY was huge in the registry space. We registered there, as did most of our friends for their weddings. I figured it produced high margin sales because you were stuck with the particular models/items on the registry. Not sure how BBBY's registry business is today, but I would also work on making that the best experience possible.
fwiw, agree with all the comments on investing in stores, if that's appropriate. My biggest issue is with outside financial moves - ala dividend and buybacks, esp buybacks.
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