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(A long and uh...cautionary tale.)

As many of us already suspect, knowing the historical August trends, the likelihood is high that most "techs " (which includes BB and most everything else of interest) are due for a breather - maybe even a correction for NASDAQ. So what's new?? Just a reminder to friends about getting complacent this time of year, or expecting too much.

Giving advice to others is unsound, and that's one thing I love about this board - everyone respects that. But, it's also hard to see people risking new positions when that may not be prudent. I'm certainly no bear, and look for my investments to continue performing well - but realize as we all do that there will be starts and stops to this (hopefully) rising trend. Corrections are good and necessary, though painful. They also present opportunities to buy at better prices. Jumping in too soon can be painful, too. May be useful to keep in mind, as with a warning label on your medication - be alert to the downside as well as the potential benefit.

Saw the following article in by H. Meisler, one of their technical analysts whose commentary is always about the larger market trends. She notes some interesting, though not comforting conclusions about the NASD.

Here are some excerpts:

"… When we look at the Nasdaq's performance relative to the
Dow, we can see that as soon as the Nasdaq's
outperformance peaks relative to the Dow, the Nasdaq (and
technology stocks in general) goes into a prolonged
correction period. The peak at the end of January coincided
with a 300-point, or 12%, correction in the Nasdaq. The
Dow's correction during that period was only about 6%. It
took almost six weeks for that trend to reverse itself.

In early April, we once again saw a peak in this indicator. At
that time, the Nasdaq fell about 300 points, or 11%. And
what did the Dow do? It rose about 10%! This indicator
rolled over again early this week.
(ed. emphasis added - mgk)
We may find, as we did in April, that the Nasdaq snaps back
up for a few days only to come down again, or it may just keep
heading down. Either way, it appears we are in for a period
of technology underperformance over the intermediate term. "
(H. Meisler,, 7/23/99)

Caveat emptor

Oh.... and when you go to the beach, or the lake - use plenty of sunscreen. <g>
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