No. of Recommendations: 1
Re toucalit's post on the 28th Feb and the discussion about Abelson. I'm glad someone has pointed out that TMF's existence is probably due exclusively to the 10 year bull market we had. And, of course, the emergence of the Internet and all the high tech mania that it dragged along. Along with low interest rates, demographics, the peace dividend, etc. etc.

We are obviously in a new phase. A bear market? Anyone ever heard of Japan? The 70's and 80's were very kind to Japan. The 90s? A 10 year bear market with no end in site. Could we be seeing a repeat of Japan? Could we be entering a prolonged bear market with few opportunities despite new technologies, genomics etc? Isn't this all tied in to demand for stocks? If people lose faith and confidence,and flee to safety, (retirement not far off)what does it matter what PE ratio, capitalization, PSR, or IFR,, if the bear is sniffing the air after a long hibernation?

I've read that interest rates in Japan have been at zero for many years. If Greenspan cuts rates further and further and it has no effect and reaches zero, what then? Any correlation with what went on in Japan to our situation today? What are the similaritie or differences?

Are we headed for a Japan scenario? Any Fool or even Wise have any idea how Japan is doing and where she is headed? Any books out there covering Japan then and now?

This post may betray my ignorance and lack of sophistication but those are my thoughts.

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