Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 2
Hi all, (or few)

It's been a long time since I put up some returns but thought I would make my contribution since I was just running through my spreadsheets.

First, the theoretical outperformance. I've been rotating at portfolio of Magic Formula stocks on CAPS under the name TrackMagicFormul every week since 10/17/12, with a total of 526 'picks'.

http://caps.fool.com/player/trackmagicformul.aspx

Quick breakdown, the CAPS score is a market-beating 79.43, with accuracy of 50.26% (yuck!) and average pick score of +2.02 (yay!) Considering that these picks have pretty short hold times (maybe 3-9 months; just until they fall off the list) annual outperformance is likely 4-6%.

Second, some real-world outperformance. I have a TD Ameritrade IRA that I used this year, with $74,989.98 invested in 22 MF picks. Some caveats, as it was an IRA I don't pay any tax. Also I got free trades this year, though buying and selling 22 picks would cost only about $440, or a half percent of the portfolio. But I didn't pay that!

I leaned toward dividend payers, which helped a lot.

My worst 5 picks were
PDL BIOPHARMA INC
GILEAD SCIENCES INC
PITNEY BOWES INC
BUCKLE INC
VIACOM INC NEW CL B

with market underperformance (including dividends, but NOT reinvested, vs. SPY with its dividends) ranging from -60% to - 26%! OUCH!

My best 5 picks were
HP INC
QUALCOMM INC
CATERPILLAR INC
CUMMINS INC
OUTERWALL INC

with market outperformance (dividends NOT reinvested vs. SPY) ranging from +26% to +57%.

Adding the outperformance for the 22 tickers individually, I made an excess $5,482.75 on my $74,989.98, or 7% outperformance!

Of course, questions are welcome.
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.