No. of Recommendations: 10
This update is to Kenneth Lee’s Benchmark Investing picks based on the latest Monday’s data release. Currently, three Dow30 stocks is trading below 
their benchmark price target. The largest is WBA, Walgreens, which is -30% below its downslide price target. However, even this stock doesn’t
qualify as a pick because it violates several rules. If you are interested in following along with this methodology against a broader range of stocks 
outside of the Dow30, my picks are posted in the Fool CAPS on a regular basis.

Market Valuation (Dow 30): 
The market remains very overvalued currently, at least according to the BI method of valuation.
Downside: -42%
Upside:   -17%

Long Buy Rules: 
I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which are the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be 
   included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)
5. ROE and BV current figures must be updated by VL to be considered.

Summary of Results

	VL	        Current	ROE/BV	Down	Up     %<10Y   %<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Updated	Price	Price	Down	Down4Qs	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	15-Feb-19	140	TRUE	145	230	-4%	16%	12%	 2.6 	215	290	90%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	15-Feb-19	139	FALSE	100	128	39%	43%	25%	 2.7 	185	230	49%	FALSE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	22-Feb-19	188	FALSE					4%	 2.5 	195	235	13%	TRUE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	1-Mar-19	125	FALSE	68	91	84%	94%	-6%	 3.9 	130	155	15%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	1-Mar-19	81.59	TRUE	53	68	54%	62%	-13%	 4.2 	100	120	36%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	8-Mar-19	389	FALSE					24%	 2.2 	475	580	40%	TRUE	Boeing
TRV	8-Mar-19	138	TRUE	98	126	41%	54%	24%	 2.3 	200	240	60%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
UNH	8-Mar-19	244	TRUE	184	264	33%	60%	14%	 1.5 	315	385	44%	TRUE	UnitedHealth Group
VZ	15-Mar-19	58.99	TRUE	42	55	40%	64%	-1%	 4.1 	85	100	56%	FALSE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	15-Mar-19	54.81	TRUE	33	47	65%	89%	13%	 2.6 	55	70	17%	TRUE	Cisco Systems
WBA	15-Mar-19	63.6	TRUE	91	133	-30%	-27%	7%	 2.8 	100	130	83%	FALSE	Walgreens Boots
HD	22-Mar-19	195	FALSE					2%	 2.9 	235	285	36%	TRUE	Home Depot
PG	22-Mar-19	104	TRUE	71	92	46%	52%	5%	 2.8 	105	130	13%	FALSE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	29-Mar-19	54.38	TRUE	44	63	25%	29%	-2%	 2.4 	90	105	83%	FALSE	Intel Corp.
AAPL	29-Mar-19	190	TRUE	102	203	87%	91%	-3%	 1.7 	255	345	58%	FALSE	Apple Inc.
IBM	29-Mar-19	143	TRUE	134	180	7%	20%	1%	 4.6 	175	215	39%	FALSE	Int'l Business Mach.
DWDP	5-Apr-19	54.36	FALSE				-32%	12%	 -   	0	0	0%	TRUE	DowDuPont Inc.
MRK	5-Apr-19	83.17	TRUE	49	67	69%	88%	7%	 2.7 	90	105	17%	TRUE	Merck & Co.
PFE	5-Apr-19	42.83	TRUE	35	45	24%	18%	8%	 3.4 	50	65	35%	TRUE	Pfizer Inc.
MMM	12-Apr-19	212	FALSE				44%	9%	 2.8 	255	315	43%	TRUE	3M Company
UTX	12-Apr-19	133	FALSE	96	130	38%	42%	2%	 2.3 	150	185	35%	FALSE	United Technologies
GS	12-Apr-19	196	FALSE	210	330	-7%	2%	7%	 1.7 	310	380	88%	FALSE	Goldman Sachs
KO	18-Jan-19	46.74	FALSE	36	45	28%	30%	8%	 3.6 	50	60	28%	TRUE	Coca-Cola
WMT	25-Jan-19	97.84	TRUE	65	86	51%	64%	-4%	 2.2 	115	140	38%	FALSE	Walmart Inc.
NKE	25-Jan-19	85	FALSE	57	81	48%	69%	14%	 1.1 	90	110	27%	TRUE	NIKE Inc. 'B'
DIS	1-Feb-19	112	FALSE	141	190	-20%	5%	10%	 1.6 	150	180	51%	TRUE	Disney (Walt)
JPM	8-Feb-19	104	FALSE	94	137	10%	27%	5%	 3.2 	105	140	21%	FALSE	JPMorgan Chase
AXP	8-Feb-19	112	TRUE	94	133	18%	32%	11%	 1.5 	115	140	25%	FALSE	Amer. Express
V	8-Feb-19	157	FALSE	141	199	12%	45%	20%	 0.7 	155	185	9%	TRUE	Visa Inc.
MSFT	8-Feb-19	119	FALSE	56	79	112%	132%	6%	 1.6 	135	165	28%	FALSE	Microsoft Corp.
Dow30		        26,186	       15,186  21,715	                         2.5  31,767  39,225			Dow Jones Industrial Average
Appreciation Potential		  	 -42%	  -17%				         21%     50%     39%


AllTooFoolish's CAPS Portfolio: 
If you are interested in seeing this method applied to a broader universe of stocks, follow my actively managed Benchmark Investing portfolio 
using Fool CAPS. I have been using this methodology exclusively in Fool.com for many years with great success. In the Fool CAPS you will find 
my current portfolio and can see my most recent activities.

Notable activity in this quarter’s CAPS portfolio: 
IVZ, Feb 8, started new position, BI downside price -35%
SRCL, Feb 22, sold entire position, no longer active pick among selections
KMI, Mar 1, added to current position, BI downside price -22%

My overall Fool CAPS Rating at the time of this post was 73 (+3 points since previous quarter)
Score: 1,479 (77%)
Accuracy: 48% (52%)


Disclosures and Useful Terms
VL Date is the date of the last summary report update from Valueline as indicated in the post’s subject line.
All data sources from Valueline Dow30 reports made publicly available on the VL website. https://research.valueline.com/research#list=dow30&sec=l...

Current Price is the closing price of the stock as reported by VL, which is usually a few days behind the date 
of the time period mentioned in the posting subject line.

ROE/BV Updated is an indication if the stock’s BV and ROE have been updated through the end of the Benchmark evaluation time frame.

10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

10Yr Down4Qs is the 10 year downside price averaged over the previous 4 quarter’s valuation price.

10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

Both upside and downside are calculated using method outlined in TTD book.
Also a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found here:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20916205&sort=who......

%<10Y Downside is the current price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.

EPS Future Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters.
I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which are updated as soon as new earnings are reported.

Div Yield is the current % dividend payout ratio per share.

3-5 Y Low/Hi Price Est. is the downside/upside price estimate which is calculated using the projections of Book Value 
and ROE as discussed in TTD.

Min VL Price Appreciation is the expected change in price from current price to low end VL projected 3-5 year
appreciation price.

ROE >2STD is part of a margin of safety consideration, which is briefly discussed in TTD on pg 70-71. 

I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average (10 Yr
ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), 
than this column is TRUE, else it is FALSE. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than its historic average and should therefore be avoided.
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