No. of Recommendations: 7
Using data back to the 1950s for ^GSPC (S&P500)
an excel simulation came up with this strategy-
I used ^GSPC to get a long history, but you would
be buying the SPY ETF which is equivalent.
Rules:
Buy (or stay in the market) these months
Jan
Mar
April
July
Oct
Nov
Dec
Buy but only if
End of month adjusted value > EOM adj. value 5 months ago
for these months
Feb
May
June
Aug
Sept
Example- at the end of January, you would compare the
EOM vs.the EOM value for August (5 months earlier).
If it is larger, buy (or keep since Jan. is a always
buy month) the
SPY ETF for the month of February.
For the past month of August you would have been out of
the market. :^)
Buy/Sells done at the end of each month.
Some results-
Returns over a period of 50 months
EoM adjusted port B&H return port return
9/9/15 1,942.04 8,338.44 72% 72%
9/1/11 1,131.42 4,845.12 -22% 18%
7/2/07 1,455.27 4,113.35 51% 42%
5/1/03 963.59 2,897.89 -25% 15%
3/1/99 1,286.37 2,517.86 173% 144%
1/3/95 470.42 1,032.58 46% 45%
11/1/90 322.22 710.51 39% 28%
9/2/86 231.32 555.29 116% 90%
7/1/82 107.09 291.96 10% 47%
5/1/78 97.24 198.04 3% 43%
3/1/74 93.98 138.87 11% 9%
1/2/70 85.02 127.56 -7% 18%
11/1/65 91.61 108.44 37% 66%
9/1/61 66.73 65.50 39% 31%
7/1/57 47.91 49.93 55% 62%
7/1/54 30.88 (start) 30.88
1999 to now 51% 231%
1954 to 1999 4066% 8054%