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Link to an interesting article

This from page 2
have been big secular cycles in commodities for several centuries. Every 25 or 30 years you find that supply and demand get out of the whack and then you have a long bull market or a long bear market throughout the year. Supply and demand are out of whack again, there is not enough supply, so you are going to have almost a bull market in commodities.
Another bit from page 2
Inventories of most raw materials are very low right now. So it takes a long time bringing up capacity and after you bring on the capacity everybody wants to build up the raw material inventory. Because everybody remembers oh my God there is a shortage so we got to build up our inventories and that phase goes on a long time as people build inventories. This phase goes on longer and longer as more and more capacities are added so than the down phase begins and it lasts longer.

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