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Link to an interesting article
http://www.capitalideasonline.com/jimroger/interview_jimroger.html

This from page 2
have been big secular cycles in commodities for several centuries. Every 25 or 30 years you find that supply and demand get out of the whack and then you have a long bull market or a long bear market throughout the year. Supply and demand are out of whack again, there is not enough supply, so you are going to have almost a bull market in commodities.
Another bit from page 2
Inventories of most raw materials are very low right now. So it takes a long time bringing up capacity and after you bring on the capacity everybody wants to build up the raw material inventory. Because everybody remembers oh my God there is a shortage so we got to build up our inventories and that phase goes on a long time as people build inventories. This phase goes on longer and longer as more and more capacities are added so than the down phase begins and it lasts longer.

JR
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