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No. of Recommendations: 4
NBIX has a binary event on their latest phase II with elagolix coming up no later then May 2010. If the trial results demonstrate non-menstrual pain relief is significant (validating management's claim that the prior patient population was simply not sick enough to show any statistically significant improvement on this one measure - and there is a good chance they are correct) then from this current marketcap a triple or quadruple are quite possible.

It is a flyer, because if elagolix goes down, NBIX is worth not very much. Sure, they have a pipeline and a long history of raising money, but the only thing they have to really fall back on at this time is urocortin which is a promising phase II drug, but still quite early in its development. They can probably survive long enough however to partner it in some reasonable fashion if elagolix falls.

Tinker
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Tinker:
Yes, positive result of study 901 will be a huge boost to NBIX and if ran under the old matrix, elagolix should be way into phase III by now.

However, this management has NO respect from me.
1. Look at their track record with Indiplon
2. Look at how they handle study 702 - yes, it is a brand new recording system. But it seems to me that they have NO understanding about the "symptoms" of non-menstrual pain whatsoever and have no clue what it takes to run a successful trial. Any experienced team would NOT have made such mistake.

I would go deep on elagolix if it is in good hands such as BMRN; with NBIX, a touch down is a much more nervous bet.
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