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Greetings Fools!
Looking for an active biotech discussion to join - is this the place, or is there a more active board on the Fool?


Long AUPH, VBLT, ZFGN, APTO. Considering AKAO & CLRB
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hi Andrea!
what topics are you proposing? ImmunoOnco, CAR-T, antibiotics, vaccines or specific companies...
looking forward hearing your input,
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Happy to periodically join.

I have two posts in the hopper I've been meaning to get out for awhile:

1) Why ziop is trash
2) why tesaro could be yuuuuuge.
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Fuma - I would love to read your thoughts on new-to-me biotech companies!

Marsuculix - I am just dipping my toes in biotech as an investing proposition after breaking the ice with Alkermes last year. Most of my IRA is in longer-term, larger-cap stocks, but I am an RN with a background in research (I once a tiny biotech/research lab out of my basement!) and as a wannabe scientist (and wannabe retiree!), I have become more intrigued in the investment side of things.

I have small positions in the few stocks I've mentioned, and a TEENSY (but fun - whee! What a ride!) position in Bionovelus (ONOV)just because I like the principal's ideas and drink a lot of coffee.

I also have a very tiny position in CVR Med (CRRVF), which I can't for the life of me understand why I originally purchased and is now not worth selling. Lesson learned - don't buy biotechs w/o extra due diligence - and especially not after coming off a call shift without sleeping on it! ;-)

I see you are long AKAO and have been pondering a position in that but have been hesitating. Do you have any comments on timing wrt them?
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we desperatly need new antibiotics - big pharma has abandoned its development 25 years ago (reasons: no maintainance rx, risk of bacterial resistance, short lifecycle etc.). I know it first hand as I was marketing manager @ Merck Switzerland for imipenem (Tienam)...
In the past years I made some good money when Trius was swallowed by Cubist followed by the takeover of Cubist by Merck!
The rejection of Cempra's soli on Dec 28, 2016, was a real shock to me and it is still unbelievable. I am still holding a position but increased my positions in Paratek [PRTK] and AKAO. To me Tetraphase [TTPH] is the least attractive antibiotic company at the moment. I will explain this in detail in another post later on. Okay!?
The second field of specific interest is ImmunoOncology. I am looking forward to ASCO 2017: NLNK, CALA, CLDX, REGN, INO and DVAX will present their data. I will give some feedback on this board.
Take care, marsuculix
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Hi fuma102 I bought tesaro (TSRO)back in summer 2016 & was so excited to see it run up to around 192; then sadly held on while it has gone all the way down to as low as $28 ? I’d like to know why you think it will be yuuuuge?
I have noticed it’s gotten a bit of a kick in its price over the last 2-3 trading days. I’m still a believer in it’s good CEO & 1-2 of its drugs seem promising. What is your thesis for its success?

Thank you
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Its a 2b market cap, making it about 8-10x sales for Zejula. Zejula is currently indicated for 2nd, 3rd, 4th line+ for recurrence & maintenance.

Future studies for Zejula:
Quadra: solo as 4th+ line treatment (fully enrolled / completed phase 2 trial)
PRIMA: solo as 1st line for maintenance. (fully enrolled / completed phase 3 trial)
OVARIO: 1st line for maintenance in combo with avastin. phase 2, enrolling
TOPACIO: Zejula+keytruda. 1st line for treatment, recurrence, and maintenance. enrolling, phase 2.
AVANOVA: 2nd+ line for treatment combined with avastin for recurrence and maintenance. (fully enrolled / completed phase 2 trial)

Right now, its not really used as curative treatment now except for recurrence, otherwise its for maintenance after 2nd line treatment.

This can, and should, be a billion dollar plus indication. and it completely ignores all their other indications. and all their other drugs (though its really Zejula at this point, their PD1, TIM3, and LAG drugs are not quite deserving of discussion yet).

750m sales, at 8-10x sales is a triple from here. It's just frustratingly slow awaiting these clinical trials when there are so many good stocks out there right now.
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