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No. of Recommendations: 5
Laughing at Buffett's quote now a couple years back, "don't worry though, I won't be putting any of our reserves in bitcoin."

Old geezer misses all the great returns.
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No. of Recommendations: 34
Without a doubt, the ultimate outcome of an investment choice is what determines whether it was a well reasoned decision, nothing else.
Bitcoin would obviously have been the right choice.

As another example, when somebody picks the winning lottery numbers, it's obviously due to outstanding analysis skill because it turned out amazingly well.

Jim
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No. of Recommendations: 0
well one reasoned decision: Bitcoin couldn't be manipulated and suppressed like gold and silver, and it's an easy, cheap, and permission-less way to move massive amounts of money.

Sometimes an Occam's Razor works just fine. Though I do like your humor.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
well one reasoned decision: Bitcoin couldn't be manipulated and suppressed like gold and silver, and it's an easy, cheap, and permission-less way to move massive amounts of money.

Why could Bitcoin not be manipulated? Now that it will be possible to trade options on it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/bitcoin-o...
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No. of Recommendations: 4
it will be manipulated or interferred with by the powers that be mark my words. So if you haven't taken your original money off the table yet do so now. Let only winnings ride.

Bitcoin has what? A market cap of over 100 billion ? So it will still run and is insignificant to the system thus far (even the Treasurer said they are only taking a look at it at this point and that is all). But ultimately the system, also known as the Govt., can't allow Bitcoin beccome the defacto standard for exchanges money for goods and services.

The hard core manipulation is one form or another will come.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Buyer out there for everything and anything

February 15, 2012
What the ETF… is that George Bush?

...Termed a “no brainer” by the celebrity guest, XIE Shares ETFs launched today at a press conference at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, Hong Kong. Hosted by CEO, Tobias Bland and Head of Beta Products, Paul So of EIP, the event was well attended by members of the Hong Kong press.
http://www.pr-ime-asia.com/what-the-etf-is-that-george-bush/...

I checked and not surprisingly the "no brainer" has done very badly. But what celebrity guest would be better to speak about no brains?

Tiny little Bitcoin and all the imitators get so much attention when the ETFs and other specialized garbage put together and sold gets very little attention. Well, Bob Bogle was on just after to say the very specialized ETFs are just another way to stock pick and we all know how well the average money managers does. And some of them are expensive.

Me, I am heavy into the new three month old MAGA ETF. It is what you would expect it to be.

How can I lose? I actually respect the Bitcoin nutters compared to your average money manager stock picker. The destroyers of wealth.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Laughing at Buffett's quote now a couple years back, "don't worry though, I won't be putting any of our reserves in bitcoin."

Old geezer misses all the great returns.


I have some rally nice tulip bulbs I can let you have cheap.
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No. of Recommendations: 16

As another example, when somebody picks the winning lottery numbers, it's obviously due to outstanding analysis skill because it turned out amazingly well.


I've been watching Bitcoin occasionally and from a distance for maybe 8 years. I remember when it traded at $7.
I never invested in it because I figured that it would get outlawed at some point, its primary value proposition being the facilitation of tax evasion, money laundering, drug buying and various other illicit activities.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
only a very old washed up poor return money manager would view bitcoin in the same context as the tulip mania.
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No. of Recommendations: 33
only a very old washed up poor return money manager would view bitcoin in the same context as the tulip mania.

I have a feeling a good number of people in this board, myself included, feel pretty comfortable investing their money with this "very old washed up poor return money manager".
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No. of Recommendations: 0
wasn't talking about berkshire....the IQ on this board has also gone down the drain.
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the IQ on this board has also gone down the drain

Yeah, it dropped a lot when I joined in 1997, then fell a little more in 2014 for some reason. I'm teasing :) My original sign up date is wrong btw
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No. of Recommendations: 4
I realize everyone here knows this but this is going to end badly. Three of my teenage kids have recently invested in bitcoin (I encouraged them...why not...).

It reminds me of the book the big short when they go down to Miami and find out that strippers are buying tons of property with no money down.

Once kids, cab drivers, strippers, etc, know that something is a good investment, you know this isn't going to end well and the top is in sight!

Rob
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No. of Recommendations: 6
Three of my teenage kids

Good Lord, how many kids do you have if three is not even the total number of teenage kids?

Breeders. Sheesh.

</duck>
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No. of Recommendations: 12
I'm calling the Bitcoin top. So far today my brother, a colleague, my boss, and a friend have all brought up Bitcoin in conversation (I did not initiate any of these conversations). The look in some of their eyes suggests that they are thinking about buying, or have already bought some. The crash is coming soon. And a well deserved crash it will be since Bitcoin is nothing more than a metaphysical manifestation of a fraudulent libertarian phantasmagoria.

This tulip of an idea that private money can be privately summoned to serve the social function of facilitating exchange and storing value is a fantasy par excellence. Bitcoin cannot function as money of exchange beyond the miniscule online (and mostly illegal) exchange relationships it currently serves. At best it can function as money of electronic exchange, but any attempt to embody Bitcoin to facilitate physical exchange will immediately call into existence the very state it wishes to expel from economic existence. The physical form of Bitcoin as money must be, well, money (i.e fiat currency). It must be regulated and guaranteed, and only the state can regulate and guarantee money (despite these libertarian dreamers). Dr. Whisky's admonition to sell now raises an interesting question: what are you selling? If Bitcoin is money, why sell it for fiat currency? Isn't Bitcoin a store of value? In fact isn't it a superior store of value because it stands beyond the grasping hands of the state with its fiat frauds and its avaricious appetite for annexing private wealth to itself? Isn't the sale of Bitcoin an admission that the dollar, and not Bitcoin, is true money and the real store of value in our economy?

Bitcoin is the culmination of the triumph of libertarianism in the world today, and it will lead its acolytes to ruin.

PhoolishPhilip
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I'm waiting for the guy that snowplows our street to start telling me about bitcoin.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Apropos of nothing...

About 3 years ago my son got his first job and decided (more as an act of rebellion, sticking it to The Man) to put a portion of his savings into bitcoin.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
The dollar is the largest bubble in the world today. Bitcoin's bubble is just getting started.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
by the way, all the bubble talk is almost funny.

If you want to talk bubbles on this board that is more on topic, how bout the Fed's cheap money bubble that has led nearly every idiot in the world into a far greater bubble today: the stock market and bonds.

Too many of you of judging Bitcoin the wrong way. Bitcoin is a manifestation of the sick system we live in--created by the Fed.

The real bubbles lay elsewhere. A curreny with a market cap north of 100 billion is hardly a bubble.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Without a doubt, the ultimate outcome of an investment choice is what determines whether it was a well reasoned decision, nothing else.

How else should one judge the investment choice if not the market ?

If Berkshire market cap today was just $1B after all these years, would you think that Buffett is an genius making well reasoned decisions ?
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Without a doubt, the ultimate outcome of an investment choice is what determines whether it was a well reasoned decision, nothing else.

How else should one judge the investment choice if not the market ?


May I timidly suggest that rather than revisiting this well-tread ground, we all agree to give 40% weight to reasoning, 40% to long-term results and 20% to luck, and attribute short-term results to luck until proven otherwise?

Buffett would score 80% (reasoning + LT results)
Bitcoin bandwagoners would score 20% (ST results)
Bitcoin hodlers would score 60% (ST + LT results)
Long-term Amazon bulls would score 60% (ST + LT results)
and so on.

It's not an either-or. A lesson that would really cut down on hateful rhetoric in politics.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
"Good Lord, how many kids do you have if three is not even the total number of teenage kids?"

I have 5 kids, only 3 are teenagers. I probably could have worded that better. 2 are in college. Why do you think I'm working so hard and investing like crazy?

No I am not catholic, nor mormon. Yes they all have the same mother. Yes it is arguable that we are, indeed, crazy. (Just answering all the followup questions for efficiency...)

If only I would've put more in bitcoin! Or heck, not sold amazon at 9.

Rob
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No. of Recommendations: 2
This week Bitcoin doubled. One Bitcoin is now worth two Bitcoin...

Mark
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Some of the pro-Bitcoin comments here remind me of Ob1Mike who, as a huge fan of CMGI and ICME, made the following statement in December 1999:

" How can Warren Buffet not invest in technology. I've heard all of his lame excuses, but none of them make any sense. If he sees more value in Dairy Queen than of optoelectronics or b2b e-commerce than he is just plain naive. Just some thoughts. I invite any of you to compare the ruturns of CMGI or ICGE to the returns of BRK.A over the next 20-50 years and see which does better. "

http://boards.fool.com/brka-is-uncomprehensible-11646121.asp...

Ob1Mike's challenge was picked up by UsuallyReasonable in the thread linked below. The first year's performance is quoted below (and of course, it gets worse over the years):

"ICGE
12/13/99 -- 135
12/13/00 – 6 1/32
Change: DOWN 95.53%

CMGI
12/13/99 -- 105 15/16
12/13/00 -- 9 5/8
Change: DOWN 90.91%

BRKA
12/13/99 -- 55,500
12/13/00 -- 68,900
Change: UP 24.14%"


http://boards.fool.com/the-brk-vs-cmgiicge-challenge-1389649...
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No. of Recommendations: 0
by the way, all the bubble talk is almost funny.

True on one sense: it's not much of a bubble, really. These things are all relative.

The rate of change of bitcoin price is far less than what it was a while back.

e.g., ratio of current price to trailing-two-year low was higher than this through much of 2013 and 2014.
The ratio peaked at 160 then, versus 31 now.

Or, consider three year rate of change.
It was higher than this for almost the entire period from four years ago to two years ago.
Peak around 4533x, currently around 45x, so it's 1% of the old rate of price increase.

Heck, just to graph the rate of change I had to use a semilog graph to see the old rate peaks.

Jim
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True on one sense: it's not much of a bubble, really. These things are all relative.

The rate of change of bitcoin price is far less than what it was a while back.



“Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.”


? Miles Kington

Irrespective of what the first and second derivatives might say, Bitcoin is in a bubble.

A penny stock going from 5c to 10c is different than it climbing to $10,000 and then going on to $16,000; though the curve is less steep in the latter case.

Bitcoin is not a penny stock, of course, except in the sense that it is backed by nothing - no central bank intervention, no government mandating its use. It is worth what its users say it is.
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No. of Recommendations: 18
A penny stock going from 5c to 10c is different than it climbing to $10,000 and then going on to
$16,000; though the curve is less steep in the latter case.


So, if bitcoin did a million-for-1 split then you'd agree that the older price zoom was more like a bubble?
That it's the absolute nominal price that determines what's a bubble?
Would a zoom from $2 million per bitcoin to $2.5 million be a bigger bubble? Just think, $500k in just a week...

No, the "bigger bubble" by a rational measure would be the biggest divergence from actual value.
But there is no obvious anchor for actual value so I imagine price moves are about all we have.

Bear in mind that my comment was largely tongue in cheek.
The price of bitcoin will do whatever it likes based on the whims of the marginal collector or speculator, like a Mickey Mantle rookie card.

I think that baseball cards are an excellent way to think about it.
Items are identical but supply is limited, and buyers either (a) just like to be owners or (b) think the future price will be higher.
It can go into fashion and out of fashion, but there is no obvious reason to forecast with confidence a future price of zero.
Future failure, if any, is more likely to be boredom and flattish low prices with few trades watched only by a few diehard fans on web sites nobody visits.

I suppose the biggest difference with bitcoin versus trading cards is that bitcoin do have some objective practical utility, even if it's not the prime factor in the price setting.
It's not easy to buy something with a bitcoin, but it can be done, and it's easier than using a Mickey Mantle card.
It's primarily an object of speculation, but it is also a currency. Just not a very good one, using the three conventional tests.

Jim
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So, if bitcoin did a million-for-1 split then you'd agree that the older price zoom was more like a bubble?
That it's the absolute nominal price that determines what's a bubble?
Would a zoom from $2 million per bitcoin to $2.5 million be a bigger bubble? Just think, $500k in just a week...


Yes. It is absolutely easier for people to take a flyer on a 5c stock than it is on a $10,000 stock, and only serious players would consider a $2M gamble. Absolute price matters as much as relative rate of change.

And here I will undercut my own argument because unlike a stock, a bitcoin is divisible so I imagine I could buy 0.0001 bitcoin if I wanted to (I clearly have not :-)) So you may be right in that specifically for an infinitely divisible currency, price of one unit does not matter.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
The dollar is the largest bubble in the world today. Bitcoin's bubble is just getting started.

One of these bubbles is not like the other.

One has a bunch of warships and warplanes and real assets (including real-estate) to back its "bubble". The other has ???

Do streetcorner drug dealers accept bitcoin?
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Do streetcorner drug dealers accept bitcoin?<\i>

Funny you should ask. One of the most notorious sites on the web was called Silk road. Among other supported transactions: it was notorious for selling drugs which could be paid for only in bitcoin.
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Funny you should ask. One of the most notorious sites on the web was called Silk road. Among other supported transactions: it was notorious for selling drugs which could be paid for only in bitcoin.

Yes, I recall that. Interesting story how the Feds took him down.

Actually, the vision I had in mind was Walter White in Breaking Bad....and the last part of the last season where they had 55-gal drums full of currency. All US dollars, no bitcoins.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Okay, since I posted last week I can now add a 19 year old college student and and MVA emissions checker as two more people who have acknowledged buying Bitcoin. It's officially a frenzy. How does one short Bitcoin?
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You could short a bitcoin by entering into a contract with a bitcoin holder to borrow the bitcoin (presumably at some rate of interest) and return it at a specified later date.
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Oh, I forgot to add: Once you get the bitcoin, you sell it.

You make money if, before you return it, you buy it back at a price that is lower than what you sold it for minus the interest.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
You could short a bitcoin by entering into a contract with a bitcoin holder to borrow the bitcoin (presumably at some rate of interest) and return it at a specified later date.

Much easier now.
Sell a bitcoin futures contract.
Cash settled, each contract is one bitcoin.

Jim
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