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your post is a good summary of what's happening.
However, there are contrary points to be made:

1. Apparently toshiba pay because they dont think they can win in court. Either that, or the court cost maybe more for them, or their lawyer think they will lose.

2. Hitachi brokeoff negotiation: You can draw the same kind of conclusions. That hitachi's lawyers dont think they (rambus) have a case on their industry standard patents.
Now which lawyers are more accurate? The jury is still out. if Hitachi wins, then Toshiba's legal/management team will look rather bad. If Hitachi lose, or settle, then toshiba's team look good.

I don't have any clue about those patents involve, consequently are totally unqualified to comment as to who may win. But.....the fact that most dram makers are still in "negotiation", may mean:
1. they are really waiting to see whats going to happen with Hitachi.
2. They dont see a clearcut as to the validity or invalidity of the patents, and they don't want to take side yet.
3. the fact that toshiba only has 5% of the market means there is really still question as to whether anyone else will follow. Toshiba's contract is significant, and a clear victory for rambus. rambus winning the battle or the war?
i think the jury is still out. If you see a bigger dram maker jumping on board, then you can probably safely say that they are in very good shape.
don't forget this also create precedence in a lot of things. The fact that industry standards can (after 9 years) become patented is really a scarely thing. I don't know how the juries/judges are going to look at this matters...considering the huge implication it can have on everything (besides rambus).
In the near term, look for rambus to be still very volatile both ways, pending news and analyst comments
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