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bjp:"There are 6 billion people in a highly complex barely feeding themselves dependency on agriculture, all evolved for the temperatures and rainfall patterns and weather patterns that prevailed over the past 10 millennia."

And the Club of Rome predicted the world would have collapsed, when was it,...oh, right 1990 as the food supplies ran out.

Well, so much for the doomsayers. We feed a billion more, in comfort. Yes, we use a lot of energy doing it, but we produce more and more food for less and less energy and it improves every year. We produce so much in the way of 'calories' of food that 1/3rd the planet is now OBESE.

Growing areas have moved over the centuries. Man has adapted. Now, with bio engineering and GM food - plus artificial food - we should have not have a problem. It is always food distribution that is the problem.


bjp:" Plus 4 is a small change in weather but a MASSIVE change in climate. The Glaciation to here is only about 6 degrees IIRC."

And many other experts say it will be 2 deg or less, C.

WE'll adapt. Grow food differently.


bjp:"At Plus 4 much of southern Europe, north Africa and the Middle East become uninhabitable - climate refugees move North (South in the Southern Hemisphere). (My personal expectation is a MINIMUM - 1.5-1.7 meters of sea level rise by 2100 but THAT does NOT stop for a thousand years)."

It already hits 130 deg in SAudi Arabia and daily temps of 110-115 are not unusual. I doubt it would get much hotter."

They can't grow their own food, so they'll be food for oil trade for centuries.


bjp:" It will mostly be poor people who starve... but some own weapons of mass destruction and they WILL be desperate... they WILL blame the USA. (with some reason I think)"

Heck, much of AFrica can do fine without us. The folks in Togo don't need your corn or your sheep wool or lamb. Most of the country is small time farming and rural villages.

In fact, the most backward countries, that haven't moved masses of people to the cities, will do better than those with gigantic cities like nigeria, Cairo Egypt and similar...

The 'poor' in Appalachia that grow their own veggies, beans and have their own chickens....will do better than the inner city hood in NYC when there are actual food shortages.


bjP:"History contains many ruins of civilizations that suffered some form of overshoot of their natural environment's resources of food and water."

And nearly all of them didn't have the technical ability to solve them. Like irrigation projects. like greenhouses and food storage. or in the case of Rome...over expansion of the 'empire' and wasting lots of energy making cement to make ever grander buildings. BUt even that 'collapse' took 300-400 years to happen in slow motion.

the world didn't end either.


bjp:" What we are doing is different.......but even if we pulled back on our population and did not ever overshoot our current food production, we still wind up in overshoot when that production crashes back. "

LEt's see...we were going to run out of whale oil. We found substitutes. We were going to run out of this...and that...found substitutes.....ran out of natural we invented man made rubber......then we invented all sorts of plastics and packaging and nylon and rayon and other stuff so we wouldn't run out of cotton to make clothes.

each year, we coax more and more food out of less and less land.

Why don't you think we are smart enough to continue the trend?


bjp:"The water shortages, energy shortages and heat stress will put paid to the "green revolution" that was fueled by plenty of energy and water."

We'll just have to invent even more DROUGHT tolerant plants..we already got a bunch.....and many plants like warmer climates. Grow faster.....maybe we could get 3 crops a year instead of just 2?


BJP:"- The most likely being the release of Carbon from the permafrost."

There ya go don't have a clue as to whether that is 'the most likely' or even will happen, do you? Despite all your degrees.


bjp:"We are pretty sure the Methane Hydrates will stay put"

No one knows for sure. and who is this 'we' bit?


bjp:" What this adds for us is a fairly strong expectations that we are going to trigger some of these effects, making it harder to stabilize temperature."

YOu haven't included any bio-feedback mechanisms that could likely react to any increases and cause the planet to push itself back to equilibrium, right?

Maybe more rain...more cooling from precipitation? More green from the rain causing more growth taking more CO2 out of the atmosphere?


bjp:" At 4 degrees the effort to not reach 5 will be more like a religious jihad."

probably not. It will be just like today, with folks worried about their country. SOme will be better off, some worse off. But I'm sure the welfare weenies will be pushing an agenda of more free candy, not drop the temps by 2 deg F.


bjp:"Much of our infrastructure, much of our ENERGY infrastructure is located on coastlines and rivers to obtain cooling water."

So? rivers are hundreds or thousands of feet above sea level.

And most of the infrastructure on the sea has 50 year life or less. We routinely tear down one bulding and put up others. By the greenie plan, we'll be able to shut down most of them anyway in 60 years as solar panels sprout everywhere and the country has 5 million wind mills. High above sea level.

Yeah..the buggy whip factories and horseful carriage buildings were often replaced by auto factories and airplane factories - which built products.

You know, 120 years ago, the folks were predicting NYC would collapse and could not handle more people. OVer 10,000 people per night were employed to shovel the horse poop from the 1.5 million horse drawn carts. Even worse, they figured no one would be able to live there since the density was limited to five story buildings - above that, the brick buildings collapsed upon themselves and furthermore, folks weren't willing to climb 8 and 10 stories of steps. We invented steel frame buildings and passenger elevators......and the density of cities went up by 1000%.

Sorry, I don't buy your infrastructure argument. The average house has a useful life of less than 50 years. Business buildings probably 20-25 years. then a total knockdown or gutting of the building and redo.


bjp:"Consider too what happened to our supply of disk drives with a single flood in Thailand... the rise and fall of water will become larger and some (much?) of our industry will be found to be more fragile than expected."

Silly mistake to locate the plant in flood plain area. Lesson learned. And, by the way, did you really feel inconvenienced by not having access to a disk drive that week? Did the world of computers come to an end?


jbp:"We have been living a great economic lie by using money that does not represent work done, and when the energy disappears, an awful lot of our civilization goes with it."

That might be true, but that is a different issue than discussing temperature rise. Much different.

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