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You wrote, Have a financial news program running in the background, and they discussed an exceptionally large option trade made yesterday in TLT. I don't know what TLT is, but the option trader was betting that the Fed would not raise rates.

TLT is the iShares 20 Year Treasury Long Bond ETF. All it holds is Treasuries of 20 years or more maturity. Simpler and lower granularity method for getting into and out of long-dated Treasury bonds.

And, According to the guy talking on the television...that option trader made 200% on their investment....and suggested that..."somebody knew something"

Buying a short-dated ATM call on TLT yesterday before the announcement would have been quite profitable. Of course I was kind of expecting the next move to be in December, not September, so I suppose I was stupid not to do what that trader did... Doesn't mean I knew anything. ;-)

- Joel
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