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I come here as "Gorilla Game challenged"...so my apologies out of the chute to all of the experts here...I've read the book, but am basically clueless about the nuances of tornados, crossing the chasm etc.

Today's announcement by the Energy Department should spur this entire sector...but it seems to me BLDP may be a possible frontrunner, although I cannot evaluate their technology advantage. At least it appears that the field may be narrowing. Here is a post I put on over at the RatBoard...

Bruce Brown...where are you?? Any thoughts here....?

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16431422

Fool On.

OtterPater
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Disclaimer:

I come here as "Gorilla Game challenged"...so my apologies out of the chute to all of the experts here...I've read the book, but am basically clueless about the nuances of tornados, crossing the chasm etc.

Today's announcement by the Energy Department should spur this entire sector...but it seems to me BLDP may be a possible frontrunner, although I cannot evaluate their technology advantage. At least it appears that the field may be narrowing. Here is a post I put on over at the RatBoard...

Bruce Brown...where are you?? Any thoughts here....?
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16431422

Fool On.
OtterPater


Hey, Otter. I did catch the BLDP interview on the tube last night via CNBC which is broadcast in the evening on this side of the pond. I was in pain at the time trying to force my Salomon X-Wave ski boots to fit better for this Sunday's family outing up to the little hills here in Austria. Amidst the foot pain as well as the grinding, sawing and carving of the inner boot boards to alter the ramp angle enough to accept the installation of custom orthotics and my high arch - I did pay attention to the interview and certainly realize the reality of future prospects for fuel cells. BLDP does seem to be nicely entrenched with the oil companies and at the moment looks to be the most 'diverse' of the group.

The fuel cell category has been discussed or at least initiated to be discussed quite a few times in the past on this board. If you do a search you should find some of the content from many contributors. It has also been mentioned and intiated for discussion on the SI G&K board as well as the GG listserv digest on several occasions over the past couple of years.

If you wanted to view the category as a particular "IPR game" within technology, then you should do as others and run the category through the criteria to see if their is a broken mission critical process that needs "fixing" via a technology that could evolve into a standards based game using gorilla gaming principles. That's not the only way to approach the category when considering investment, but for purposes of this board seems to make sense if it is going to be discussed.

I haven't followed the particular fuel cell category as closely as other categories as it is so early in the development stages and the players may all easily be subsumed by the oil companies as time moves forward and the applications of fuel cells increase. The announcement by the energy department goes a long way into creating an environment that should help launch the next phase. Others have commented about whether or not application of the gorilla game principles even fit into this category or should be considered. Rather than comment on all of those arguments for and against, I suggest doing the search on the board to review the thoughts of others who do follow the category closely enough and have thought through the process of applying the gorilla game critieria.

Regardless, tracking all the players and following the category as an overall group for investment criteria can certainly be done easily. I have the group's tickers all in a watch list that I have followed for about two years which allows me to focus in on the group.

BB

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BLDP - Hairy Knuckles?

The answer, I think, has to be no. The fuel cell arena appears to be poised for a royalty game, not a gorilla game. And it is pre-commercial so it is premature to call it either, really.

Ballard is extremely well positioned with a wide array of PEM fuel cell products in the prototype stages. They also have potentially large businesses in electric drivetrains and other fuel cell related equipment. However their first fuel cell product, a small portable generator hasn't reached the retail market yet.

I say that the fuel cell arena will be a royalty game because it doesn't appear there will be 'open proprietary standards' which would lock people into using one or another fuel cell. Niether does Ballard have a lock on IP necessary to build competitive fuel cells. They are well positioned, but will face fierce competition.

Since fuel cells are pre-commercial, the door is still wide open for a challenger to come up with a better way of building them and quickly eliminate Ballards current competitive advantage. Improved membranes allowing higher temperature operation of PEMs are under investigation and competitors could have an edge there though Ballard as the leader could have less incentive to publicize advances.

I like Ballard and have owned the stock. I got out with a slight profit before the crash when I decided that its then $8 billion market cap was unsustainable given market conditions, and prospects for losses for years. It is still very richly priced and many many things will have to go right for it to live up to its current $3 billion market cap. That was a nice breakout the last couple of days, unfortunately I'd say it's right back at resistance from March-April, July 2001, which it may have trouble shooting through.

Ben
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See article on gasoline and then think about fuel cells.


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16379387

After reading this again and the gov getting in to it my gut feel is we are still years away from a big payday in cells or an 80-mpg car.

Energy is neither created nor destroyed, it just cost an arm and a leg because the suppliers are keeping the supplies.


Dennis
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Bruce,

Congratulation on your nomination.

Dennis
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