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No. of Recommendations: 3
Capitulation Watch?
Be on the lookout?
I can't think of a single pundit who is not predicting more pain.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Fear and Greed is barely into "fear" territory.
This changes daily.
But it's suggesting NO capitulation.

Put/Call ratio has dropped, indicates lots of Calls being bought. No capitulation.
among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.

Junk bond buying indicates Extreme Greed. Risk ON.
Bonds are in demand (safe haven). Risk OFF.

VIX... The VIX is rising, but, it's kinda slow.
Fear.

More and more companies making 52 week lows. Extreme Fear.

SP500 chart has broken below its 125dma, which forms a decent Trendline. So SP500 has also broken below its 1 year trend line.

Where is the next support?
Some chart TA?
Now, looking at Stockcharts SPX.
Eyeballing the chart ...
The SP500 before Dec2019 had a flatter longterm trend... then April-Sept2020 an inflection point and from Oct2020, a steeper trendline.

In order to "revert" to the pre-2020 trend line, the SP500 price needs to drop to 3800. With the SP500 currently at 4441, that's about 650 points.
650/4441 = 14.7% so another 15% to go from here?

From the SP500 top at 4800 (late Dec2021) to 3800 would be 1000/4800 = 20.8%.

My "eyeball" numbers suggest the SP500 is 8% below its Dec2021 ATH. Not quite to the 10% needed for the pundits to declare a correction?

I'm not yet seeing that it's time to start a Capitulation Watch.
The immediate future is very cloudy.

"Might be wrong, might be inaccurate, might be the ramblings of a madman." Tom Nash.

👽
ralph
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. . . the ramblings of a madman." Tom Nash.




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Tom who?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Nash
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Tom Nash with Dave Lee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlTietz5vPc

Denny Schlesinger
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I received a Foolish email

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Subject: Re: Blood, capitulation, wailing Watch

REALLY?
You rely on social/pop media for info?
Never imagined you were one of "Them".
Dave Lee?

Not David Lee Roth I assume-- since I didn't bother to click.
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Why by email and not on the board? The board is here to discuss these issues.

Denny Schlesinger
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Is this the great capitulation? Many stocks hitting 52 week lows pre-market. AMZN ARKK CRWD DOCN ESTC GAN NFLX TWLO VEEV ZM AYX FOUR FROG TDOC PEGA DOCU FVRR MELI MQ PAYC ROKU SE SHOP SKLZ JMIA BIGC CURI PINS FUBO MGNI S SNAP.
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Is this the great capitulation?

Patience Grasshopper!

Denny Schlesinger
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They have capitulated on Saul's board.
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What makes you think they / we have capitulated on Saul's board? It is awfully quiet over there!
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It is awfully quiet over there!

Posts 82582 to 82588 inclusive deleted!

Quiet or muzzled?

Denny Schlesinger
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After years of Saul saying to just follow the company. The stock price is secondary and will eventually come along if you are right. The board has revealed itself to be wimps that don't believe a thing that they say. No wonder Tesla is banned from the board.
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A lot of the current negative voices over there are not regulars on the board.
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I fully appreciate the need for rules, but it seems you can no longer even discuss analysis on stocks that have fallen out of favour with the board monitors. I would be afraid to post anything over there now.

(I almost feel like I could be pilloried for daring to say what I've just said here and I'm not even on the board!)



Alex
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After UPST had its last earnings and the board dissolved into negativity about the company Saul was absent because of a bike accident. His first post seemed to imply that he didn't understand the change in heart and didn't understand people selling. A couple of weeks later he sold most of his. Now he says to wait for the next earnings report. What changed? You will see the speculation in the last 1000 posts about the company.
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Initially I was interested in Upstart but when I learned that they promote sub-prime lending I lost all interest.

Denny Schlesinger
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The board has revealed itself to be wimps that don't believe a thing that they say. No wonder Tesla is banned from the board.

When the stuff hits the fan, when rubber meets the road, the market separates mice and (wo)men.

Denny Schlesinger
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Just remember the way to handle stocks as explained by Will Rogers years ago.

Buy the stocks, wait, when the stocks go up, sell and get your profit. Then repeat, if you like.

If they don't go up, don't buy.
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. . . as explained by Will Rogers years ago.



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Oh yeah, that guy who chose a one-eyed pilot to fly him around in Alaska in a cobbled-together float airplane, built primarily out of Lockheed parts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiley_Post

Sooo, the fatal crash on take-off was less "bad luck", than protracted poor judgement. Market strategies from a humorist are also a form of poor judgement.



sunrayman




{better, but also useless, advice}


https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/09/28/market-fluctuate/
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Now Saul has bought back in because he likes the CEO. I plan on switching the companies in my sons two accounts from UPST, CRWD, NET and DDOG (about 15% of port) to an index fund so I don't need to follow this BS. I only can follow one company.
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I like all this Saul changing his mind all the time. It forces people who just follow him to reconsider what they're doing.
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