Jim doesn't like it. 😇Denny Schlesinger
Jim doesn't like it.He doesn't like it for basically the same reasons I don't; and didn't; and said so — on this board — years ago.Enough posters and readers took heed and moved on to leave only a few hardcore "deniers" around to keep a light on.kelbon
Kelbon shouldn't have the last word here...
Kelbon shouldn't have the last word here...I'm reminded of a story about the Wailing Wall. A journalist interview one of the devout at prayer.J: "Do you come to pray often?"D: "I've been praying here regularly for decades."J: "What is it like?"D: "It's like talking to a stone wall.";)Denny Schlesinger
Hi Denny,It's been years since I've been on the MF boards, but I came back finally. And I see that at least you're still around. What ended up happening to the BMW board? Did everyone close up shop and go home? Discouraged that the method didn't work in a big downturn? Other greener pastures?Kathy Chaconas (fafar)
It's been years since I've been on the MF boards, but I came back finally. And I see that at least you're still around. What ended up happening to the BMW board? Did everyone close up shop and go home? Discouraged that the method didn't work in a big downturn? Other greener pastures? Jim did pack his bags and never came back. I'm not privy to his reasons. Two legacies are alive and well because they are maintenance-free websites, Mike Klein's charts, and my BMW Method website that uses input from Mike's sitehttps://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/http://bmwmethod.comI consult Mike's charts quite often but I don't use them in BMWM style investing. I've been developing an options trading method for over a decade and finally switched entirely to it in May this year. I've written quite a lot about it at the NPI board but I have no plans to make it public.As to what happened to the BMW Method, my opinion is as follows. I think Jim had a very sound idea that worked remarkably well when used properly. Jim was constantly asking all of us to "push the envelope" which was also a good idea but it did entail risks or, rather, uncertainties. The financial crisis of 2008 and pushing the envelope were what killed the board but not the BMM Method itself. As financial stocks crash dived Jim believed they would bounce back like other stocks like Altria had earlier bounced back. Sometime back then, I posted a warning that financial stocks are much more fragile than commercial and industrial stocks. Other Fools posted similar warnings but Jim did not heed these warnings. His stance was that the Method had worked before and that it would work again this time. Companies that go broke don't bounce back. I believe that Jim put his money where is mouth was and lost a bundle. As I recall, back then there was also a lot of political wrangling that didn't help matters, 2008 was an election year.I had a lot of discussions with IcyWolf about when to buy BMW Method stocks, on the way down or after the bottom. I now concede that IcyWolf was right, buy on the upside. Had Jim followed IcyWolf he would not have gotten into trouble. In 2008 the story of financial stocks changed with casino style Credit Default Swaps (CDS) imploding and with mark-to-market accounting creating a massive liquidity crunch that led to massive sell-offs and bankruptcies. This was fragility that did the financial system in. This was way beyond the BMW Method which is a stock by stock method while 2008 was a sector wide collapse. Still, had Jim bought after the rebound he would not have gotten into trouble. Denny Schlesinger
Thanks for the thorough history, Denny. I left the boards right during that collapse due to personal reasons...and lost a bundle for not paying attention to my stocks at all. Learned a big lesson there, which I will never repeat. If I can't pay attention, I'll sell everything first. Yes, I did find your site and Mike's were still operating a few days ago and was pleased to see them.I'm sorry to hear about Jim. I guess I can understand why he backed away from the board but am sorry to see that pretty much everyone did. Looks like for many the method took the blame rather than the market and looser application of the method.I remember those IcyWolf discussions on when to buy. I have always liked to see some turnaround before going in on a stock too--safer, less-nerve-rattling. And I don't need to try to make every last penny...now...though when I started out I tried to.Congrats on your options strategy...I hope it works well for you. I'm not a knowledgeable enough investor to go that route; I've forgotten too much. Lots has changed here at the Fool. A lot of closed stock boards or just inactive ones, of companies that are alive and kicking. Kinda surprised by that. I do see that many method boards are still active though. I'll be back-reading/stalking a lot to see where I fit in. I helped input Value Line data on the Mech Investing board way back when, so I'll probably start there. But just an initial visit tells me they've evolved WAY past my memories of what screens were around then. I will need to find posts that explains what all those screens are! And their relative results. The FAQ is pretty basic. "They've got a lot of 'splaining to do" -- Ricky Ricardo lolSee you out there!
Hi Fafar!FWIW, I still use the "BMWM" as I always did: look at Mike and Denny's sites to develop a list of candidates for further due diligence. Then if I think the reason they are down is non-strategic and fixable over a reasonable amount of time, I buy them....either the stock or I sell puts at even lower prices than current.Similarly, if any of my stocks become sell candidates, I look for the reason why....and if I see nothing more than exuberance/popularly/herd mentality, I typically sell covered calls.Sometimes I make mistakes (hindsight), but roughly 85% plus turn out well.Cheers!MurphBO and MFPP Home Fool
Hi Murph! Look at you Still being a Fool! I think you'd just added the TMF around the time I left.85% is pretty darn good! It's exciting to see that it actually is still a valid method, a good starting point. I'm looking forward to easing back into this. It's like going back to school rereading posts. What do you consider a reasonable time for fixing, btw? That's one thing I was never good at...waiting too long. A one-year return to avg cagr or maybe 1.5 years was all I had in me, which therefore meant I only wanted to buy stocks pretty well on their way back. And yes, that gives up a lot. But it's what my stomach could deal with. lol So for me, would issues be fixed in a qtr or two max. What's your timeframe? Didn't Jim have a longer, like 5-yr, hold timeframe?Alright....Now I have to go look up what MFPP is. Thanks for checking in! :)
FarFa!MFPP is Motley Fool Premium Pass, one of two services I serve as a Home Fool.Time to "fix" a non-strategic problem can vary, since some fixes are faster than others. Also, there can sometimes be quite a lag time between the actual "fix" and when it shows up in the stock price.One good example was JNJ with the Tylenol scare; they reacted immediately and well, (plus the problem was a small part of their total business), but the effect on the stock was waaay out of proportion....and getting John Q public to believe all was OK took time. JNJ is now experiencing what I view as legalized extortion regarding baby powder and opiods litigation, and the stock is priced lower than it should be: not enough for me to jump in with a big addition yet, but assuming the worst, they still survive/thrive. My action so far has been to turn the dividend DRIP program on for my sizable position....and await some more headline grabbing lawsuit awards for a larger dip....maybe magnified by a general market correctionOther "fixes" sometimes are very quick, like malfeasance in upper management, which hits quick and can be solved relatively quickly. Others are relatively slow, like WFC, which is beginning to pay off.Using options can help with timing/patience on these waiting periods, since they can be repeated/rolled again and again while one's thesis plays out, generating extra "dividends" while one waits.Patience: the toughest investing lesson I ever had to learnOne more thing: I typically use the BMWM for solid companies who have been around for along time and have a track record of weathering "storms"; not newer companies, or companies in the tech arena where things can be obsoleted quickly.Yet one more thing: Use of the BMWM has to fit your overall investing strategy; it doesn't fit everyone's. Here is a dated post that outlines mine:https://boards.fool.com/hi-jah609-it-has-been-my-experience-...Cheers!MurphBO and MFPP Home Fool
Patience: the toughest investing lesson I ever had to learn That's for sure! It's one reason I like short term options, they match my attention span much better than LTBH.One more thing: I typically use the BMWM for solid companies who have been around for along time and have a track record of weathering "storms"; not newer companies, or companies in the tech arena where things can be obsoleted quickly. I believe this to be a central tenet of the BMWM, the companies need to have a believable track record. This excludes much of high tech which has a high turnover and one must make sure the companies continue doing what they have been doing all along.BTW, it's one reason Mike limited his chart to a minimum of 16 years.Denny Schlesinger
Hi Denny!Just wanted to wish you Happy Holidays....and many thanks for all you have done here, on the New Paradigm board and elsewhere on TMF to make me a better investor!Thanks a bunch, and I hope your Portuguese transition is still going well!Cheers!Murph
Denny, you moved to Portugal? Wonderful! I've actually thought about you many, many times in the last few years with all the strife in Venezuela and wondered how you were. Honestly, every time it was mentioned on the news. I'm glad you're well. :)
Murph, you've renamed me! lol FarFa I guess I am pretty far from you...down in...was it NC? FL? somewhere down south if I recall.Funny you mentioned J&J. I recently looked at them and feel that they will get through the opioid ordeal too, so I took a small position a week-10 days ago even though they're just above average cagr. They still have room to run. I turned on DRIPS too. :)"One more thing: I typically use the BMWM for solid companies who have been around for along time and have a track record of weathering "storms"; not newer companies, or companies in the tech arena where things can be obsoleted quickly."I totally agree! And thanks for the Have a Plan link...wise words. My husband and I do have one, I am happy to report.
Thanks Murph! TMF has been very productive for me these 18 years. There have been and there are a good number of very helpful Fools we can all thank. Being able to bounce ideas off these people is really helpful.Except that it has become way too cold for me, Portugal is quite lovely. Lovely people, clean and orderly place, no mass shooting, no terrorists, inexpensive cost of living. But I wish I could go home. Two weeks ago I enrolled in a class to learn Portuguese. Not so easy, the pronunciation is specially difficult for me. It's amazing how close it is to Spanish yet so different.Happy Holidays!Denny Schlesinger
By 2004 things were looking pretty grim in Venezuela and I decided I needed an insurance policy in case things got really bad. I applied to regain my German citizenship to get a German passport that would give me access to most of Europe and some Caribbean islands. My mother archived all our documentation including my father's military log-book. He was a sergeant in The Great War earning the Iron Cross First Class. This documentation was very important because it is not enough to be born in Germany to obtain citizenship, you need German roots and military service is evident proof.I was doing OK in Venezuela as was anyone with hard currency but by the start of the year the situation had deteriorated to such an extent that I decided to leave. With the German passport in hand I had absolutely no problem. I visited Madrid for one week, two weeks in Berlin to find where I was born and then on to Porto, Portugal.For me the market opens at 2:30 PM and closes at 9 PM. Not too bad.Denny Schlesinger
Funny you mentioned J&J. I have J&J in my heart, literally! A 1997 vintage stent!Denny Schlesinger
Crossing fingers for you that one day you can go back. I'm glad you had such good foresight to get that passport. :)Fafar
OOPS!Sorry about the fat-fingered/brain name change, FaFar! Duh Me!We were in Charleston SC for about 18 years total (2 different times)....and have lived in 9 different states (NC, KS, MN, NE, CA, TN, KY, SC and since 2012, the mountains of north GA, near the terminus of the Appalachian trail)..My husband and I do have one, I am happy to report..That alone puts you ahead of about 95% of all people! ;-)Cheers!Murph
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