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Bonds bring X% CAGR. Stocks bring Y%. Stocks outperform bonds 59% of the time (one-year periods). Now mortgages are (X+1.5)%. So the percentage of the times stocks outperform mortgages HAS to be lower than the times stocks outperform bonds

Well think about it. If mortgage rates track bond rates, mortgages will be down when bonds are down and up when bonds are up. So chances are the years bonds loose to or beat stocks will be the same years that mortgages do so.

And it's not like stocks just barely beat bonds. The historical rate of return on bonds is somewhere near 5.5% while the return on stocks is closer to 11%. Double that of bonds. So that measly 1.5% added on to mortgage rates ain't gonna make much of a difference. The probability is that stocks will beat mortgages even over short periods of time.
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