Parliament has taken control of Brexit, after PM May's brinkmanship left them no good choice. This is "unprecedented". Holding public votes makes negotiation difficult. And many alternatives are unacceptable to the EU. It will be amazing if Parliament finds success after debating, choosing alternatives, and voting all in only one day.Some votes Parliament could take: Task Force: Admit Brexit is difficult. Revoke Article 50 and form a task force to develop a plan to do a correct Brexit. Better Backstop: PM May's plan with a different Irish backstop. Do not apply EU regulations to England. This was the EU's original positition. Customs union: This calls for the UK to negotiate a new customs union with the EU immediately after it leaves. Common Market 2.0:The UK would remain in the single market by rejoining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and staying in the European Economic Area (EEA). A "comprehensive customs partnership" would replace the Irish border backstop plan. It would accept continued freedom of movement but with conditions. EFTA and EEA: The UK would rejoin EFTA and sign up to existing EEA rules and obligations but make them enforceable through the UK courts. Rejects any customs union with the EU, instead seeking agreement on new arrangements for Northern Ireland. Malthouse compromise plan A: Mrs May's withdrawal deal but without the backstop, which would be replaced by alternative arrangements. Another referendum: The public would vote on any Brexit deal which is passed by Parliament before it is ratified. Revoke Article 50: If the government has not passed its withdrawal deal, MPs would vote on a no-deal Brexit two days before the UK's leaving date. If MPs reject no deal, the prime minister would have to cancel Brexit altogether. "MPs took the unprecedented step of voting to seize control of the parliamentary timetable on Monday, in an attempt to end the deadlock over the terms of the UK's exit."https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47712130"The selection of amendments would be based on (highly flexible) criteria, like the breadth of support, and the distinctiveness of each possible alternative; it is unlikely that the Speaker would choose two almost identical propositions for example." "They would be invited to vote Yes or No to each alternative on offer, and the totals for and against each of them would then be counted by the clerks."https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-parliaments-47712770Past votes on Brexit:December 2015: "the poll of polls currently puts Remain on 51% and Leave on 49%"https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/new-open-europecomres-p...February 2016: Parliament enacts legislation authorising the referendum.June 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum: Leave the European Union 52%Remain a member of the European Union 48%turnout 72% of Registered votersturnout 65% of Voting age populationvotes so far in 2019:Jan 15 May's Deal: rejected 432 votes to 202.Jan 16 Labour's motion of no confidence: rejected 325 votes to 306.Jan 29 seek alternative Irish backstops: passed 317 votes to 301.Jan 29 reject leaving without a deal: passed 318 votes to 310.Jan 29 postpone Brexit if no deal reached: rejected 321 votes to 298.Feb 14 back government's negotiating strategy: rejected 303 votes to 259.Mar 12 May's Deal: rejected 391 votes to 242.Mar 13 rule out a no-deal Brexit at any time: passed 321 votes to 278.Mar 13 managed no-deal Brexit: rejected 374 votes to 164.Mar 14 delay Brexit: passed 413 votes to 202.Mar 25 MPs take control of Parliament's agenda: passed 329 votes to 302.
The 8 initial votes on the table today:(B) No-Deal(D) Common market 2.0(H) EFTA and EEA(J) Customs Union(K) Labour's alternative plan(L) Revocation to avoid No-Deal(M) Confirmatory public vote(O) Contingent preferential arrangementscomments from https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit-parliament-lates...(B) will cause the biggest headache(D) doesn't provide a sufficient answer to the Irish border question(H) doesn't satisfy the Ireland question(J) doesn't satisfy the Ireland question(K) confused and light on detail(L) could cause serious domestic problems for the UK(M) another layer of indecision(O) wishful thinkingWhich raises the question: why is the Irish border question being avoided? 3 of the 8 votes are useless because they do not address the obvious Irish border issue. It's not that complicated. Parliament must choose one of the following: Ireland hard border, Irish Sea hard border, or no Brexit. Anything else is just wishful thinking.
There are many different ways to count votes, with scientific papers written on the subject. Maybe Brexit would benefit from a different voting method. There are many different ways to Remain or Leave.On June 12th Maine conducted the first-ever statewide election using ranked-choice voting (RCV), in which voters rank the entire field rather than just voting for a single candidate.Many stock screeners use ranks. A review of the scientific literature on how ranks can be combined to determine the winner might be relevant.Each year NatCen's British Social Attitudes survey asks around 3,000 people what it's like to live in Britain and what they think about how Britain is run. Since 1983 they've been measuring and tracking changes in people's social, political and moral attitudes.Do you think Britain should continue to be a member of the European Union or should it withdraw?Table 1. Attitudes towards Britain’s continuing membership of the EU, 1983-2014 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1997 2014Continue 53 48 56 61 63 68 76 77 72 54 57Withdraw 42 45 38 33 32 26 19 17 22 28 35However, while this question gives us an indication of the degree towhich the public embraces the UK’s membership of the EU, it is arather crude measure of people’s attitudes towards the institution. Ittakes little account of the stance taken by the current Prime Ministerin 2013, or indeed the Conservatives’ long stated position that weshould be ‘in Europe but not run by Europe’. Thus, since the early1990s, British Social Attitudes has in most, though not in all yearsadopted the following more subtle line of questioning:Do you think Britain’s long-term policy should be:to leave the European Union,to stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU’s powers,to leave things as they are,to stay in the EU and try to increase the EU’s powers,or, to work for the formation of a single European government?Table 2. Attitudes towards Britain’s relationship with the EU, 2002-2014 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2012 2013 2014Leave the EU 15 15 18 16 15 20 30 26 24Stay in EU but reduce its powers 35 32 38 36 36 35 37 39 38Leave things as are 23 27 23 24 27 24 16 19 18Stay in EU and increase its powers 12 11 7 10 9 9 9 6 10Work for single European government 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 4http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/media/38975/bsa32_eu.pdf
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1997 2014Continue 53 48 56 61 63 68 76 77 72 54 57Withdraw 42 45 38 33 32 26 19 17 22 28 35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2012 2013 2014Leave the EU 15 15 18 16 15 20 30 26 24Stay in EU but reduce its powers 35 32 38 36 36 35 37 39 38Leave things as are 23 27 23 24 27 24 16 19 18Stay in EU and increase its powers 12 11 7 10 9 9 9 6 10Work for single European government 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 4
(B) No deal Rejected 160-400(D) Common market 2.0 Rejected 188-283(H) EFTA and EEA Rejected 65-377(J) Customs Union Rejected 264-272(K) Labour’s alternative plan Rejected 237-307(L) Revocation to avoid no deal Rejected 184-293(M) Confirmatory public vote Rejected 268-295(O) Contingent preferential arrangements Rejected 139-422compare toJan 15 May's Deal Rejected 202-432.Mar 12 May's Deal Rejected 242-391.possible votes on Monday (top vote getters)(J) Customs UnionProposes negotiating a "permanent and comprehensive Uk-wide customs union with the EU" in any Brexit deal.(K) Labour’s alternative planCalls on the UK to be closely aligned with the EU on matters such as the Single Market. Supports a permanent customs union in which the UK has "an appropriate say on any new trade deal terms."(M) Confirmatory public voteProposes that the UK cannot ratify any Brexit deal "unless and until they have been approved by the people of the UK in a confirmatory public ballot."
Well since Parliament just rejected all possible and impossible alternatives that should in theory bolster the chances for May‘s deal, as unpalatable as it might be. Her deal might gather further support by her ‚pledging‘ her resignation should Parliament accept it... SB(my popcorn bucket needs replenishment)https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47728333
March 29th: May's deal lost by 344 votes to 286286 MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, while 344 voted against.That means the bill is defeated by a majority of 58.It had previously suffered losses by majorities of 230 and 149.Emergency EU summit called for April 10.
March 29th: May's deal lost by 344 votes to 286286 MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, while 344 voted against.That means the bill is defeated by a majority of 58.It had previously suffered losses by majorities of 230 and 149.UK Parliament is simply amazing. They managed to reject May’s deal the third time, after voting down no less than 8 conceivable alternatives on Wednesday. Makes Maggie Thatcher’s days (« how to say ´no´ in 21 languages ») look quaint.One wonders if there is anything they positvely want. Nevertheless, reports are that May is going to try to get her deal through for a 4th time. At least the degree of rejection has progressively weakened each time...
Parliament is not one person, so there is not one thing they want. But there are political processes underway to reach a compromise. Probably something including a Customs Union. The DUP will only support REMAIN. So, a Brexit compromise will have to include the Labour party. The Labour party would support a Customs Union in some cases.some quotes from https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6867355/Chris-Grayl..."The House of Commons will hold another round of indicative votes on Monday but are expected to use a voting system which will whittle down the options to the most popular one.""Mr Corbyn said Labour would propose a deal involving a customs union with the EU to protect the issue of a hard border in Northern Ireland.""Theresa May blasted Bercow for intervening to wreck her Brexit plans again as he blocked all amendments to her deal today. One of the proposals the Speaker barred was tabled by Labour backbencher Gareth Snell and sought to guarantee Parliament a say on the trade talks phase of the negotiations. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said the Government would have accepted the amendment if it had come to a vote - meaning it could have brought some Labour MPs on board and helped Mrs May win today."
Alternative plans that MPs are voting on today:Motion C: Customs unionMotion D: 'Common Market 2.0'Motion E: Confirmatory public voteMotion G: Parliamentary supremacyThe following four motions were rejected by Mr Bercow.Motion A: Unilateral right of exit from backstopMotion B: No deal in the absence of a withdrawal agreementMotion F: Public vote to prevent no dealMotion H: EFTA and EEA
Motion C: Customs union - Defeated by 276 to 273.Motion D: 'Common Market 2.0' - Defeated by 282 to 261.Motion E: Confirmatory public vote - Defeated by 292 to 280.Motion G: Parliamentary supremacy - Defeated by 292 to 191.More votes on Wednesday April 3rd.
Motion C: Customs union - Defeated by 276 to 273.Motion D: 'Common Market 2.0' - Defeated by 282 to 261.Motion E: Confirmatory public vote - Defeated by 292 to 280.Motion G: Parliamentary supremacy - Defeated by 292 to 191.More votes on Wednesday April 3rd. Another four "no" votes but razor thin only against the Customs Union. A chance for a soft Brexit in the making after all?https://www.ft.com/content/bb321ab0-5471-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c...The former Conservative chancellor of the exchequer is leading a call for a new customs union with the EU, which would severely limit the UK’s ability to do independent trade deals but would reduce friction at the border with the EU for components and manufactured goods. This crosses one of Theresa May’s Brexit red lines, and could split the Conservative party.
date motion for against pct_for27-Mar (J) Customs Union Rejected 264-272 264 272 49.3%27-Mar (D) Common market 2.0 Rejected 188-283 188 283 39.9%27-Mar (M) Confirmatory public vote Rejected 268-295 268 295 47.6% 1-Apr Motion C: Customs union - Defeated by 276 to 273. 273 276 49.7%1-Apr Motion D: 'Common Market 2.0' - Defeated by 282 to 261. 261 282 48.1%1-Apr Motion E: Confirmatory public vote - Defeated by 292 to 280. 280 292 49.0%If the top two vote getters continue on to Wednesday's vote, there are four possible outcomes:1. Customs Union YES, Confirmatory public vote YESHold a public vote confirming choice of Customs Union Brexit.2. Customs Union NO, Confirmatory public vote YESContinue debate.3. Customs Union YES, Confirmatory public vote NOCustoms Union Brexit.4. Customs Union NO, Confirmatory public vote NOMore voting on alternatives possibly leading to No Deal Brexit.At some point, the debate and voting will end. Maybe with a direct vote between Customs Union Brexit and one alternative: either Common market 2.0, No Deal Brexit, or May's Plan.
date motion for against pct_for27-Mar (J) Customs Union Rejected 264-272 264 272 49.3%27-Mar (D) Common market 2.0 Rejected 188-283 188 283 39.9%27-Mar (M) Confirmatory public vote Rejected 268-295 268 295 47.6% 1-Apr Motion C: Customs union - Defeated by 276 to 273. 273 276 49.7%1-Apr Motion D: 'Common Market 2.0' - Defeated by 282 to 261. 261 282 48.1%1-Apr Motion E: Confirmatory public vote - Defeated by 292 to 280. 280 292 49.0%
The Scottish National Party (SNP) had 32 votes FOR Common Market 2, but abstained in the Customs Union vote. If the Customs Union was the only soft Brexit option available, SNP might vote for it. This would give Customs Union enough votes (if the other votes held). But there were 39 Conservatives who abstained from the Customs Union vote who could swing the vote either way.April 1st Customs Union Brexit vote: party MPs For_CU Against_CU abstained Con 312 37 236 39 DUP 10 0 10 0 Lab 243 230 10 3 SNP 35 0 0 35 Ind 11 5 3 3Lib Dem 11 1 5 5 TIG 11 0 11 0 Plaid 4 0 0 4 Green 1 0 1 0 total 638 273 276 89https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47781009https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47787898Big banks' predictions:J.P. Morgan: general election 30%Deutsche Bank: general election 30%UBS: general election inevitableGoldman Sachs: no-deal Brexit 15%J.P. Morgan: no-deal Brexit 15%Deutsche Bank: no-deal Brexit 25%Goldman Sachs: no Brexit 35%https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/wall-street-on-brexit-top-ba...
party MPs For_CU Against_CU abstained Con 312 37 236 39 DUP 10 0 10 0 Lab 243 230 10 3 SNP 35 0 0 35 Ind 11 5 3 3Lib Dem 11 1 5 5 TIG 11 0 11 0 Plaid 4 0 0 4 Green 1 0 1 0 total 638 273 276 89
Looks like a public vote consistently gets the most votes even in defeat.I think they should take a 3 way vote between the top three failures to see which has the most support.
Some very close votes today. Vote was tied 310-310 on whether to hold indicative votes on Monday. John Bercow, the Speaker, cast his deciding vote to oppose the move. So, more indicative votes were not scheduled.Extensions must be sought to avoid a No-deal Brexit.Parliament voted 313 to 312 in favor of a proposal to mandate the UK government to seek a further extension to the process and rule out leaving the EU without an agreed deal.The last tie vote in Parliament was in 1993 and concerned the Maastricht treaty.
Any sense on how much patience the EU has for another extension?My assumption is that there isn't enough. France and a few others appear to want to tell them "enough" and to sleep in the bed they made.It isn't as if they needed to wait until 2019 to have all of these last minute votes and negotiations.
Any sense on how much patience the EU has for another extension? All the patience in the world. "Extension" effectively means No Brexit!The Captain
"Extension" effectively means uncertainty.Which the markets hate and is probably just as bad as a hard exit.Lot's of financial decisions being placed on hold because of the uncertainty.
The EU has reasons on both sides: For extension:EU economy would be hurt by a no-deal Brexit. EU would prefer the UK to remain. Against extension:EU economy is hurt by the uncertainty about when and how Brexit will happen. UK might cause mischief if they are included in the EU elections.The EU might accept a long extension if there is a clear path forward. A general election. Or maybe Parliament passes May's plan with an amendment for a Customs Union. The EU Council meets for a special summit on Brexit on April 10. Any miscommunication or a mistimed event could tip the UK into a no-deal Brexit. Many in the UK Conservative party including PM May have said a no-deal Brexit is acceptable. PM May's April 2nd speech mentioned No Deal Brexit, but did not mention a Customs Union. May also referenced the result of the Referendum, but did not mention anything useful from Parliament's many indicative votes."I have always been clear that we could make a success of No Deal in the long-term. But leaving with a deal is the best solution."..."Despite the best efforts of MPs, the process that the House of Commons has tried to lead has not come up with an answer."..."What we need to focus on is our Future Relationship with the EU. The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a Future Relationship that delivers on the result of the Referendum"..."Crucially, the Government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House."https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-brexi...Chris Voss, in his youtube videos, says a successful negotiator tries to get the response: "That's right". This shows one side's position has been understood (but not agreed to) by the other side. I haven't heard May say "That's right" to Parliament. Instead May has said "That's right" to the Hard Brexit crowd. "The Labour price could be: the party will allow the EU divorce settlement to pass in exchange for the prime minister agreeing to a general election to allow the British people to elect a government to negotiate the next stage of Brexit."from Brexit: May and Corbyn need each other as endgame nears, 19 November 2018https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46263140
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